In view of such interests, one shouldn’t take China’s calls for peace seriously. For over a decade now, Beijing has been manifestly violating its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by supporting Russia. Largely forgotten, China proclaimed its respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders both in 1994, with Ukraine’s accession to the NPT, and in 2013, as part of the fully ratified Sino-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty. Since 2014, however, Beijing’s sham neutrality — and its economic assistance to Moscow — has been crucial for Russia’s radical revision of state borders in Europe.
Worse, as Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine continues to unfold, Beijing has been providing more rhetorical support for its apologetic narratives. This includes, for instance, Moscow’s allegedly “legitimate security concerns,” as well as the Kremlin’s purposeful (mis)interpretation of the concept of “indivisible security” as a central part of its own foreign policy, blaming the West for both the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
It’s remarkable just how far Beijing has gone to support Moscow despite the negative repercussions for its relations with the West and the possible economic consequences. The country is now faced with growing risk of a trade war with the U.S.
Today, Beijing and Moscow project the image of a united, formidable and stable anti-democratic, anti-American coalition, which also includes notorious rogue states like Iran, North Korea or Syria. Yet, the potential for cracks in this informal alliance is also obvious. For instance, Russia’s growing ties with an emboldened North Korea could lead to a difficult menage-á-trois, as Beijing has long struggled to control North Korea.
Last but not least, as Matthew Kroenig outlines in his book “The Return of Great Power Rivalry,” one should not forget that autocratic regimes suffer from volatility in their foreign and domestic affairs. World history shows that open political systems with rule of law and pluralism are more effective domestically, and at handling international conflicts with enemies and tensions with foreign allies.
Against this backdrop, it’s important the West maintains its resolve and unity. In concrete terms, this means providing Ukraine with all the support it needs — today. A Ukrainian victory on the battlefield achieved through Western support, and the restoration of the country’s territory, will be the best way of containing Russia’s and China’s revisionism.
