The US carried out airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah overnight between December 25 and 26. The airstrikes are important. Iranian-backed groups have carried out at least 103 attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. These Iranian-backed groups have also targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria over the last four years with dozens of attacks.
Most of the attacks use 107mm rockets or kamikaze drones. In general, the attacks are not deadly, but some US service members have been wounded. The US generally does not respond to the attacks. Iran, therefore, continues to have its proxies carry them out. This is similar to how Iran has the Houthis attack ships or has encouraged Hezbollah to attack Israel. In each case, a balance is created between the attack and the response. For instance, in the Red Sea, there is no response. With Hezbollah, Israel’s responses are proportionate. In Iraq and Syria, the US generally preferred only to carry out attacks in Syria because Syria was seen as a kind of “free zone” in terms of attacks. In Iraq there was more controversy because US forces are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government.
The Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah, have links to political parties and official paramilitaries, meaning they are often either on government salaries or adjacent to the government. This creates another problem. Kataib Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups are linked to the Iranian IRGC and some of them are designated terrorist groups by the US, or their leaders are sanctioned, but they nevertheless have connections to official power corridors.
US Central Command said that it conducted “strikes against Kataib Hezbollah terrorist group targets in Iraq.” It said that it struck “multiple facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups in Iraq at 8:45 p.m. (EST) on Dec. 25.” This was in response to an attack by Kataib Hezbollah targeting US forces in Erbil in the Kurdistan autonomous region. There were several injuries. The Injuries caused the retaliation. “Early assessments indicate that these U.S. airstrikes destroyed the targeted facilities and likely killed a number of Kataib Hezbollah militants. There are no indications that any civilian lives were affected. The U.S. military will continue to evaluate the effectiveness of these strikes,” the US said.
This is important, but it is not a game-changer. The US has eschewed more action or pre-emptive strikes. Kataib Hezbollah knows the equation, and it knows that if it harms US service members or US contractors, it will receive a proportional response. Proportional responses mean the Iranians know exactly how much they can turn up the heat, before things boil over. Iran prefers to keep the whole region in flames, but not turn up the flames too much.
