BEIJING: China, the world’s biggest agriculture importer, has set targets to drastically reduce its reliance on overseas buying over the coming decade in line with its push for food security but they will be exceedingly difficult to meet, experts say.
With limited land and water, China will have to sharply increase farming productivity through technology, including genetically modified crops and expand the area under cultivation to meet Beijing’s 10-year projections.
The government envisions 92 per cent self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from 84 per cent from 2021 to 2023, according to a document released in late April, on a path towards President Xi Jinping’s goal to become an “agriculture power” by the middle of the century.
Cutting the country’s imports would be a blow to producers from the US to Brazil and Indonesia, who have expanded capacity to meet demand from China’s 1.4 billion people, the world’s largest market for soybeans, meat and grains.
Over the 10 years to 2033, the agriculture ministry projects a 75 per cent plunge in corn imports to 6.8 million tonnes and a 60 per cent drop for wheat to 4.85 million tonnes.
For soybeans, the biggest item on a farm import bill that totalled US$234 billion last year, Beijing sees imports falling 21 per cent to 78.7 million tonnes in a decade.
Those targets defy the trends of the past decade in which grains and oilseed imports have surged 87 per cent.
“Forecasting a sharp reversal where in 10 years the country will be importing less than it does today seems questionable,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.
China will struggle to meet its targets mainly due to a lack of land and water, five analysts and industry executives say.
In stark contrast to Beijing’s projections, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees China’s corn imports in 2033 and 2034 roughly in line with current levels and wheat imports declining 20 per cent. In the biggest divergence, USDA expects soybean imports to rise 39 per cent.
The USDA also expects growth in demand for animal feed, a key user of soybeans and corn, to outpace domestic corn output expansion and spur imports of sorghum and barley.
