Taiwanese military experts suspected the submarine was a Type 094, based on photos taken by the fishing crews. They said the submarine could have surfaced for routine maintenance, a technical malfunction, changes in underwater topography, or a deliberate show of force.
“Nuclear submarines like the Type 094 have specialised missions and typically avoid surfacing due to their sensitivity and the need for stealth,” said Ying-yu Lin, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.
However, he did not rule out the possibility of “navigational problems or technical issues causing the submarine to surface”.
Zivon Wang, a military analyst at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taipei, said the submarine’s position indicated it was sailing within the 12 nautical mile limit of the mainland’s territorial waters.
He said the fact that only one PLA warship escorted the submarine reduced the likelihood of a technical malfunction. “Typically, in the case of a malfunction, additional vessels would be dispatched to provide assistance,” he said.
“The submarine’s navigation within mainland waters suggests a desire to avoid unintended conflict, especially if such a powerful vessel were to appear within Taiwanese waters.”
The rare surfacing of a nuclear-powered submarine, which can operate underwater for long periods, raised concerns in Taiwan, and prompted questions about whether it was another display of Beijing’s sabre-rattling against the self-ruled island or simply a routine transit.
Taiwanese lawmakers expressed concerns about whether it was an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to increase military pressure on Taiwan, particularly after the war games were staged in May that simulated a blockade of the island.
The PLA drills were held just three days after William Lai Ching-te assumed office as the island’s new leader and declared that Taiwan and the mainland “are not subordinate to each other”. Beijing sharply criticised Lai, the head of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, labelling him an “obstinate separatist” whose leadership could lead to war.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the United States does not recognise Taiwan as independent, but is opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo and remains committed to supplying arms to Taipei.
Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank in Taipei, said the appearance of the submarine could be interpreted as a show of force not only directed at Taiwan but also aimed at the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies. The allies, which include Japan, the Philippines and Australia, have joined forces to counter Beijing’s military expansion in the region.
The decision to surface the Type 094 submarine, a heavy tonnage Jin-class vessel, may have been precautionary to avoid the risk of running aground, especially given the shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait, he said.
Military experts also said that because this was the height of the squid fishing season, surfacing in the area could reduce the chance that such a vessel became entangled in fishing nets.
Type 094 submarines were also observed surfacing in the Taiwan Strait in 2021 and 2020.
Wednesday marks the 70th anniversary of the PLA’s submarine force.
