Taiwan is also the “most dangerous” issue in China’s relationship with the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Joe Biden in November.
Who are the candidates in the presidential election?
Lai is the front runner, with Hou second and Ko third, according to polls.
Lai has long been seen as “deep green”, or as having a radical pro-independence stand. He once described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” but has moderated his position, saying he does not intend to pursue independence if elected.
Hou, from the mainland-friendly KMT and New Taipei City’s mayor since late 2018, has said that if he wins he will abide by the Constitution of the Republic of China (ROC). The ROC is Taiwan’s formal name and its constitution enshrines the one-China concept, which Beijing sees as the foundation for any dialogue.
The KMT is considered the most Beijing-friendly party of the three, and has sent several leaders to the mainland over the past year.
Ko is another Beijing-friendly candidate and heads the TPP, which he founded in 2019.
Ko has said he believes Taiwan and mainland China are a family. During his stint as Taipei mayor from 2014 until last year, he promoted closer exchanges and cooperation with the mainland, an approach he sees as best for cross-strait ties.
Who is leading the presidential race?
What is Beijing’s position on the race?
Beijing has become more vocal on election-related issues as polling day has neared.
In late December, Beijing said it was suspending tariff cuts from January 1 on 12 Taiwanese products covered by the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, attributing its decision to the DPP’s stand on independence.
Who supports each party?
According to the polls, the DPP holds the biggest edge among non-college-educated voters.
The KMT’s support is more evenly distributed among voters of various levels of education but the party struggles to appeal to younger voters. The TPP has more support from college-educated voters.
Traditionally, the DPP has a southern stronghold of Tainan, where sentiment leans towards independence. Lai was mayor of Tainan from 2010-2017 and built a reputation for good governance and pragmatic problem solving in the city.
Of the three parties, the KMT has the most frequent cross-strait interactions.
How do Taiwanese voters view mainland China?
The latest survey in Taiwan indicates that a big majority see the mainland as a growing threat to national security.
Beijing has intensified its military operations around Taiwan, including frequently sending multiple warplanes and warships and staging live-fire drills near the island. Major military drills were carried out after then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August 2022, and after Tsai met then US House speaker Kevin McCarthy during a stopover in California in April.
In response, Taipei is trying to boost its defences, including extending mandatory military service from four months to a year and pursuing asymmetric warfare tactics.
Surveys also indicate that well over half of respondents believe the United States would definitely or might come to Taiwan’s defence if mainland China attacked. While the US – the island’s informal ally and biggest arms supplier – does not recognise Taiwan as an independent country, it is legally bound to arm Taiwan so it can defend itself.
Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory that must be reunited, by force if necessary and has repeatedly warned against US interference in Taiwan. Most countries, including the US, do not see Taiwan as an independent state.
At their summit in November, Xi demanded directly of Biden that Washington stop arming Taiwan. He also denied Beijing had imminent plans for military aggression.
