Iran is likely trying to showcase its military strength, send deterrent messages to Israel, and demonstrate its conventional military capabilities, Dr. Hani Suleiman, a researcher on Iranian affairs, told the Saudi Al-Hadath channel on Saturday.
In the interview, Suleiman discussed his views on the growing tensions between Iran and Israel and the potential response following the assassination of the head of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
Suleiman said, “This is aimed at Israel and the US, as well as the militias under Iran’s influence, to rebuild trust that was damaged due to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Iran is still in a difficult situation. Even if it decides to respond, it is uncertain about the proportionality of its response.”
Suleiman continued, “Iran is carefully considering its actions because there will be many consequences, particularly in light of American pressures. Reports have mentioned a secret visit by an American delegation to Iran via Turkey to convey warnings and reassurances in an attempt to curb Iranian defiance.”
“In this context, I believe Iran is trying to send discouraging messages while possibly upgrading its air defense systems and UAVs. The lack of deterrence and control in these areas could have very negative consequences for Iran’s future. Therefore, Iran insists on maintaining deterrence, but it faces the challenge of preventing an escalation of conflict.”
He added, “Nasrallah himself mentioned Israel’s anticipation of a response, and some Iranian officials have emphasized that Israel’s apprehension is a form of Iranian deterrence. Israel is stuck in fear and worried about Iranian threats, and they speak about this situation as if it were a response, perhaps to preserve the dignity of their supporters. I believe Iran is using time strategically to calm the atmosphere and possibly contain the crisis and emotional tensions.”
“There is a certain retreat and lowering of expectations,” Suleiman explained. “I think this is a realistic assessment of the situation, acknowledging the significant consequences of an Iranian response. Therefore, Iran is trying to apply pressure through maneuvers and new bargaining tactics, including discussions about the Iranian nuclear threat and interactions with the international community. There are also pressures from direct American communications through intermediaries, whether regional countries or others,” he continued.
At the end of the interview, he stated, “The US is trying to maintain ambiguity with Iran and dissuade it from aggressive actions. However, the US may eventually show understanding if Iran conducts a symbolic, qualitative, or limited attack that does not escalate the conflict. I believe there is an attempt to contain the situation, and if Iran cannot be fully dissuaded, at least to manage the situation with minimal response.”
