Happy New Year! Is there anything better to wake up to than the SportsClicker newsletter?
We’ll keep it a little briefer than normal in case you had a late night.
Without further adieu, here are the top five stories we are looking forward to in 2024:
1. Tom Brady calls NFL Games for Fox Sports
The $375 million man, Brady, is scheduled to be in the Fox Sports broadcast booth as its No. 1 analyst next to Kevin Burkhardt. This will be a spectacle, week to week, as the player considered the greatest of all-time will be dissecting the action. Adding to the intrigue, Fox ends next season with the Super Bowl in Feb. 2025.
We have discussed the Brady Meter™ for a year. The question is whether Brady will replace Greg Olsen or not? Right now, we have the Meter™ at 79 percent in favor of him calling games. It is always subject to change, but with his growing critical presence on social media and (according to sources) his studying of broadcasts, it is looking more and more likely he will be in the booth and the center of attention come September.
2. NBA television deals
The NBA is expected to have new TV deals by the end of 2024. The incumbents, ESPN/ABC and TNT, are favored to retain their packages, while Amazon Prime Video is the current leader for the digital package. NBC also is someone the NBA would like to get back into the fold.
The NBA wants an increase on its current $2.6 billion-per-year contract, but to do that, the feeling right now is it will need four entities involved, even if it ideally would prefer three.
Apple is always a stalking horse, but at the moment — and this is subject to change — there is momentum away from them being too involved, if involved at all. Fox and CBS have already stated they are out. Google YouTube and Netflix are two others that could be in play.
If I’m predicting today, the combo will be ABC/ESPN, WBD/TNT, Comcast/NBC and Amazon. All would have streaming components, while ABC and NBC would give the NBA distribution on broadcast and Amazon would see them establish a broader digital footprint than League Pass, the NBA app and its other offerings.
3. ESPN DTC and new partners
This is the year that probably ends with clarity about ESPN’s strategic future. While it is in no rush, ESPN would like to add two new partners that would buy into about 10 percent of the company. It also will likely have a set date for when it will offer its full product direct-to-consumer. In an ideal world for them, they would partner with one of the biggest digital players (Apple, Amazon, etc.) and one of the major leagues, however Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that they don’t necessarily have to have partners.
While ESPN’s full direct-to-consumer product is happening by 2025, there is an outside chance, as we have mentioned, it occurs late in 2024. Either way, by the end of the calendar year, there should be clarity. As for the cost of the DTC offering, right now, $25-$30 per month is the range.
4. The RSN issue
The decline of regional sports networks could have a big impact on leagues. Sinclair and its Diamond Sports Group, who have the most local MLB, NBA and NHL rights of any provider, are in the middle of bankruptcy proceedings. While the major market networks, like YES and SNY, are fine for right now, the middle and small market teams largely are facing financial uncertainty with declining cable subscriptions. Last season, the Padres and Diamondbacks were forced into the direct-to-consumer model as Diamond Sports rejected their contracts.
5. Media mergers
Is this the year we see consolidation among companies that have had streamering plans? There were already reports about WBD (owners of Max) and Paramount (owners of Paramount+) having had preliminary talks. There will be more talks and business plans with the presidential election in the background, which will likely have final say on what ends up happening and what does not.
