The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers are set to clash in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
Game 1 of the first-round series will commence in Sunrise, Fla. on Sunday afternoon between the previous two Eastern Conference champions.
The Lightning are surprisingly priced as +152 underdogs to win a series that I believe has legs to go the distance.
Let’s take a look at Game 1 and make a pick.
Lightning vs. Panthers odds
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | +142 | +1.5 (-185) | o5.5 (-122) |
| Panthers | -170 | -1.5 (+154) | u5.5 (+102) |
Lightning vs. Panthers prediction
There’s no doubt Florida is one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.
They’ve limited opponents to a league-best 2.41 goals and are arguably the most frustrating team to achieve zone entry on at five-on-five play, executing their signature style of toughness and grit to a tee all season long.
They won the season series against Tampa Bay 2-1, outscored the Lightning, 15-9, and carried a majority of the five-on-five play.
But here’s the thing: Playing Tampa Bay as a wild-card team is no reward for winning your division.
The Lightning core is only two years removed from back-to-back Stanley Cup titles and Nikita Kucherov just sewed together the best season in franchise history with 144 points.
While Florida is more of a top-heavy lineup in terms of its offensive contributions, Tampa Bay has the pedigree to create offense against anyone, especially on the power play.
The league’s No. 1 unit that cashed in at a 28.6 percent share is heavily supported by the slippery forward who’s favored to win the MVP; Kucherov potted 13 power-play goals in 81 games.
Even when opponents are prepared for him to set up on the weakside flank, he still finds ways to strike on one-timers.
He’s primed to see his fair share of shooting lanes on Sunday against a Florida team that averaged the league’s second-highest number of penalty minutes (13.5 per game).
This experienced depth around Kucherov makes any of his player props throughout this series attractive given how cerebral his decision-making skills are with the puck.
He’s most dangerous when changing gears off the rush and shaking off a defenseman on his way to the net.
Betting on the NHL?
Lightning vs. Panthers pick
Kucherov’s threat as a playmaker has the over on his shots prop priced generously; he registered 100 assists, but he still mustered 3.7 shots on goal per game and 3.6 versus Florida.
This is exceptionally high considering Tampa ranked 21st in shots average.
