U.S. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, led Western powers in giving Kyiv permission to fire long-range missiles at targets inside Russia.
Kyiv and Moscow each have other reasons to want a quick end of the war. “They’re both in a race against time, not just because of Trump, but also because they both have systemic, endemic problems,” Nixey said.
Ukraine is short of manpower and seems to be “on course to lose this war,” according to Nixey. Russia has found reinforcements from North Korea and additional military support from China, but its economy is under pressure from a weakening ruble and Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far shied from ordering another round of conscription.
On the battlefield, NATO officials believe Russia is gaining ground but at a high cost, losing perhaps 1,500 troops a day. Ukraine is holding on, though it is difficult. “It’s not easy, but it’s not over. It’s not a lost cause,” said Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military committee.
Putin is still fighting
The final weeks of the war could be critical, as the terms of a truce could come to define people’s lives in Ukraine for generations, said Norway’s foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide. “These historic decisions between countries will always leave something,” he added.
With Trump’s second term approaching, Ukraine’s allies have decided to hedge their bets. In addition to giving Kyiv permission to fire long-range missiles into Russia, Western officials have met in recent days to discuss how to bring about the best result if Trump enforces some kind of negotiation in January.
