The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition is likely to win 10 seats in Chhattisgarh in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, leaving one for the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), according to the News18 Mega Opinion Poll. The survey has predicted 57% vote share for the NDA, 37% for INDIA and 6% for others.
CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95 per cent of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
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Chhattisgarh, which traverses a thin line between its “Hindi belt” and tribal identity, has given strong mandates to the BJP in the last two Lok Sabha elections. But, it is still a complicated state marred by Naxal violence.
Still smarting from its loss to the BJP in the assembly elections last year, the Congress has once again fielded its trusty former chief minister Bhupesh Baghel from Rajnandgaon that is considered a stronghold of the saffron party. The six-term MLA is set to return to the Lok Sabha race after a decade.
Ruled by the BJP, Chhattisgarh has a total of 11 Lok Sabha seats and 90 assembly segments. Much like the state it was carved out of, Chhattisgarh is also likely to witness a fierce contest between the BJP and Congress.
The results of the assembly election in Chhattisgarh were unexpected as many analysts predicted the return of Baghel-led Congress but the BJP came to power winning 54 out of 90 seats.
What is the 2024 political scenario?
While the BJP wants to maintain its winning streak in the state, the Congress is gunning for an improvement at a national level. If the results of the last two state elections are compared, then it can be seen that the Congress still has a foothold in the state. In the 2018 assembly poll, the BJP won only 15 seats and, while the saffron party won the 2023 election, the Congress still managed to bag 35 seats (42.23% vote share).
In its first list of candidates, BJP named four new faces. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been campaigning hard in the tribal state, where he launched the Mahtari Vandan Yojana on the lines of the Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh. He had also virtually inaugurated educational institutions in the state, including an IIT in Bhilai.
Not only the prime minister, other high-profile BJP leaders have been visiting the state. Union home minister Amit Shah was in Bastar in February, a seat reserved for the scheduled tribes that the Congress won in 2019.
Congress, meanwhile, has pinned its hopes on experienced leaders, including Baghel. Its first list of six candidates included the former CM, two former state ministers and a sitting MP.
Four out of six candidates are from the other backward classes (OBC) and one belongs to the scheduled caste community. Besides Baghel (Rajnandgaon seat), the Congress has fielded Vikas Upadhyay (Raipur), Tamradhwaj Sahu (Mahasamund), Shivkumar Dahariya (Janjgir-Champa), Jyotsana Mahant (Korba), and Rajendra Sahu (Durg).
Baghel, 62, the foremost leader of the party in the state and a sitting MLA. HE is a Kurmi, which is an influential OBC community. But, he had unsuccessfully contested Lok Sabha polls from Raipur in 2009 and Durg in 2004.
About the survey
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each constituency, three Vidhan Sabha segments were chosen. Five polling booths were selected in each assembly constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Using a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling. A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
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Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geotagged to verify its authenticity.
