The Knicks will try to sweep their series with Sacramento when they host the Kings on Thursday night.
When the teams last faced each other, it was part of a successful 3-1 West Coast trip for New York, but this time, the Knicks are mired in a three-game losing streak.
As for the Kings, they enter this contest on a two-game winning streak, but stringing together three straight victories has proven to be an uphill challenge for them recently.
Sacramento is 0-4 in its last four games when trying to extend its unbeaten run to three games.
Both teams are missing key players. The Kings are without Malik Monk (15.4 PPG) and Kevin Huerter (10.2), while Julius Randle (24 PPG) and OG Anunoby (14.5 PPG) are sidelined for the Knicks.
With so much offensive firepower unavailable, the total has dropped two points from 216 to 214. Yet, while I agree with the move, it’s too late to take a position on the under at the current price.
However, we can use the total as a baseline to target an under in the player prop betting market.
Knicks vs. Kings odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kings | +3 (-106) | +128 | o214 (-108) |
| Knicks | -3 (-114) | -152 | u214 (-112) |
Kings analysis
Sacramento is a team that had a legitimate chance to come out of the West. Against the top four teams in the conference, the Kings are 9-5 straight-up and 4-3 on the road.
Unfortunately, injuries to Monk and Huerter will make their path even more arduous.
Since Huerter’s injury on March 18, the Kings have had to make adjustments because they simply can’t replicate the floor spacing he can provide.
As a result, Sacramento’s offense looks less fluid, and its pace of play is even slower. Before the injury, the Kings ranked 12th in pace, averaging 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes.
But since Huerter’s been out, the Kings are down to 23rd in pace, averaging almost five fewer possessions (95.6).
Thus, it’s no surprise the total is 7-1 to the under since Huerter went down. And when you add in Monk’s injury, it’s tough to project Sacramento to be involved in too many high-scoring games.
Knicks analysis
There’s no mistaking how the Knicks want to play. They want to grind the game to a halt and rely on their defense to carry them to victory.
New York ranks last in pace this season, averaging 96.1 possessions.
With Randle and Anunoby sidelined, the Knicks are arguably without two of their three best players. That puts a ton of pressure on point guard Jalen Brunson to make up the deficit.
In the Knicks’ lopsided wins this season, their defense is usually responsible for the higher margin of victory. For example, in New York’s last seven double-digit victories, its opponents averaged just 90.7 points.
Generally, with slower-paced games, there tends to be less margin for error because there are fewer possessions. And when you look at the offensive efficiency for both teams, New York is only ahead of Sacramento by four-tenths of a point.
With the Knicks being a three-point favorite against the Kings, it could be risky to lay the points in what could be a one-possession game.
Knicks vs. Kings prediction
When deciding on player prop bets, it’s always helpful to use the total as a guide to find some correlation in the market.
In this instance, one option that makes a ton of sense is to target the under for point guard Miles McBride’s points + assists prop. McBride is coming off a 24-point effort with two assists in a 109-99 loss in Miami.
Betting on the NBA?
While he’s had a considerable increase in playing time (40 or more minutes in the last seven games) due to injuries on the Knicks roster, expecting similar production in back-to-back games is a tough ask for a player who was essentially a bit part just three weeks ago.
McBride’s points + assists prop is set at 22.5, but in four games where he scored 20 or more points, he failed to exceed this number in his next outing.
The Knicks are still Brunson’s team, and I expect him to have more of the ball in his hands.
Every NBA team has a hierarchy inside the locker that requires preservation to keep the team chemistry intact.
With fewer possessions and potentially a low-scoring game, the under in McBride’s points + assists prop offers tremendous value at 22.5.
