It’s still early, but a young upstart Nationals team is on pace to overachieve it’s preseason betting total of 65.5 wins.
On Thursday afternoon, it has the the opportunity to steal a series win from the Texas Rangers, and it might be in better position than its +176 price tag suggests.
Let’s take a closer look at Washington’s matchup with the defending World Series champions and make a prediction and pick.
Nationals vs. Rangers odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | +176 | +1.5 (-120) | o8.5 (+100) |
| Rangers | -210 | -1.5 (+100) | u8.5 (-122) |
Nationals vs. Rangers prediction
(2:35 p.m. ET)
The Nationals have displayed a scrappy process at the plate versus righties this season and should prove a surprisingly difficult target for Rangers starter Nate Eovaldi.
They have struck out only 21 percent of the time versus right-handers and own the 11th-best BB/K of 0.42. They have hit to a 12th-best OPS of .696.
Eovaldi does not enter this matchup in overly great form, either.
He has struggled with command in his last three appearances with 13 walks across 17 1/3 innings, and has been hard-hit 54% of the time in those three outings.
He owns an xFIP of 4.00 this season, and an xERA of 3.66. His Stuff+ rating is down to 99 in 2024, compared to 101 last season.
Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is due for significant regression toward his 1.69 ERA, but he should still prove to be a better-than-average starter this season.
Big-league hitters are going to figure out ways to hit Parker more effectively, but his process still appears to be sound.
He owns a 2.69 xERA and 2.93 xFIP in 16 innings this season.
He’s pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 96, and a Location+ of 103. He has thrown strikes 69% of the time, and has done well to get batters to chase when behind in the count (34.3 percent chase rate).
Two of his matchups came against truly elite offenses versus left-handed pitching in the Braves and Astros, which is a positive note entering this matchup with the Rangers.
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Though to this point, Texas has not been all that productive versus left-handed pitching. The Rangers own a wRC+ of only 94 and have struck out 26.5% of the time.
Nationals vs. Rangers pick
The current gap in form between these two lineups and the two starting pitchers is not as significant as the betting prices on this game suggest.
Any price better than +165 is worth a bet on the Nationals in this matchup.
