MK Benny Gantz’s political future remained stable while Netanyahu’s leadership remained in doubt: An election poll conducted by Maariv and political pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar uncovered what the political landscape would look like had elections been held today.
The National Unity Party, led by MK Benny Gantz, continued to weaken despite its boost following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and Gantz’s entry into the government. National Unity would see a decrease of two mandates (decreasing to 33 from the last poll’s 35 seats).
At the same time, the Likud Party, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, slowly recovered two more seats to be positioned at 19 mandates.
MK Gideon Sa’ar, who left National Unity and quit the coalition in mid-March to form his own party, New Hope — The National Right, is predicted to rise above the electoral threshold with four mandates.
Sa’ar remains in, Smotrich out
While Sa’ar is predicted to remain in the Knesset, others are less fortunate. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who heads the Religious Zionist Party, is expected to not pass the threshold with merely 2.9% of the vote.
Other religious parties expected to remain in the Knesset include United Torah Judaism, who could gain up to one more seat, and in general, most parties remain unchanged in the Knesset’s seat distribution since the last polls.
Regarding potential coalition formations, the opposition and coalition are weakened by two mandates each due to Sa’ar’s incoming bloc of four seats, leading to a projected balance of 65 mandates for the current opposition and 46 mandates for the current coalition government.
Along with polling for the distribution of mandates in the Knesset, respondents were asked about leadership and who they deemed fit to lead Israel as prime minister. These results remained similar to last week’s, with 45% of respondents supporting a Gantz premiership, while support for Netanyahu as prime minister decreased by four points, currently at 34%.
Dr. Lazar is a political pollster, public opinion specialist, and CEO at Panels Politics, and conducted the electoral poll in cooperation with a panel of internet respondents using the site Panel4All.co.il.
The survey was conducted between March 27 and 28, 2024, and was answered by 503 respondents representative of the State of Israel’s population. Respondents included Israelis over 18 and Jews and Arabs. The margin of error in this survey stood at 4.4%.
