SALEM, N.H. — If there is an undecided vote to be found in the Granite State, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was trying to find it Monday.
She started her day in Franklin, with a get-out-the-vote event at the VFW, before traveling to the T-Bones in Concord. From there, she was off to restaurants in Manchester and Windham, ending her day with a hotel-ballroom rally in Salem.
“Don’t complain about what happens in a general election if you don’t go vote tomorrow,” she told an overflow crowd at The Artisan at Tuscan Village hotel.
At every stop Haley paused to shake hands, take selfies, and speak with voters about their intentions for Tuesday, when New Hampshire residents will once again fulfill their historic role of casting ballots in the nation’s first primary.
“We’re going to get this done,” she told one voter in Concord.
More than one said they were looking forward to voting for her.
“If people come to their senses, she can win,” Corinne Stoney, of Concord, told the Herald. “She has the clarity of vision to win.”
“I’m for Nikki,” Greg Simpson, a Granite State small business owner, said in Windham.
Simpson seemed disgusted at the idea of a Trump-Biden rematch, questioning the wisdom of offering voters a selection of 80-year-olds from which to choose.
“Great, the same two old people,” he said. “Give me a break.”
Stoney, Simpson, and several other voters interviewed by the Herald said that if the race came down to President Joe Biden and Trump, they would vote for the sitting president over the former.
If it came down to Haley and Biden, they would pick the diplomat.
“Haley all day,” Simpson said. “She’s brings a fresh perspective. I voted for Trump before. I can’t again.”
Even with enthusiastic supporters, plenty of whom packed her events Monday, Haley has her work cut out for her if she hopes to beat the 45th President in the primary and take on Biden in November.
According to a poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters released by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion on Monday, she’s still more than a dozen points behind her ex-boss, former President Donald Trump.
“Of 600 likely N.H. Republican primary voters surveyed, 50% endorse Trump as the state GOP’s nominee, while 34% support Haley,” pollsters wrote.
A further 11% of those surveyed said they would support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ended his campaign on Sunday. Even if all of them broke for the former South Carolina governor, she still would still need something approaching a miracle to occur to win New Hampshire’s primary.
“While the race is now closer, Donald Trump is clearly the frontrunner and the fundamentals of the contest remain the same,” UMass Lowell’s John Cluverius, the center’s director of survey research and an associate professor of political science, said with the poll’s release. “Anything can happen in New Hampshire, but to win, Haley needs to be very good and very lucky.”
Trump won the recent Iowa Caucus by a historic margin, securing 51% of the vote to DeSantis’ 21%, but it was also a sparsely attended contest, with less than 120,000 votes cast.
However, by contrast, according to New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, the state’s top elections official expects turnout to break records. Sununu guessed there would be upwards of 45% turnout, he said in Concord.
“We’ll see if it’s enough,” he said.
He also said that Haley could surprise some people, especially those who think the race is a foregone conclusion.
“She’s the only candidate with wind in her sails, she’s the only candidate gaining momentum. She’s knocked everybody out of this race,” he said.
Sununu seemed to temper expectations, however, walking back previous statements about Haley winning in New Hampshire.
“We’ve always wanted a strong second place, that’s all but guaranteed,” he said. “The energy is out there. Everywhere you go, people are talking about getting behind her.”
Trump also leads in Haley’s native South Carolina, where the next primary will be held, and in Nevada, where the next party caucusing will occur. National polling shows her behind by as much as 50 points, though most of that polling was done while the race still included multiple candidates.
