WILL AUKUS ALLIANCE BECOME JAUKUS?
Thursday’s first trilateral summit between the US, Japan and the Philippines adds to the trend of overlapping minilateralism. It follows a summit held at Camp David between the US, Japan and South Korea during Kishida’s visit last year.
Even before his current US visit, a joint naval exercise was held in the South China Sea for the first time involving warships from the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
The trilateral summit with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is expected to produce an agreement to maintain security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. This in turn will see such multilateral naval manoeuvres continue, challenging China’s territorial claims to the maritime area.
Diplomatic negotiations for a reciprocal access agreement between the Philippines and Japan will also proceed. This will allow Japanese forces to be hosted at Philippine military bases.
As Kishida began his trip, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese played down the prospects of “JAUKUS”. He said Japan is likely to participate in Pillar II only on a “project by project” basis. There were no plans to have Japan formally join the AUKUS military alliance.
Kishida added at Wednesday’s press conference that “nothing has been decided” regarding Japan’s direct co-operation with AUKUS. However, he reiterated that the US foreign policy establishment has encouraged Japan to contribute to Pillar Two, especially in undersea warfare, hypersonic missile development, and quantum and cyber technology.
