U.S. Rep. Ken Buck’s decision last month not to seek reelection to Congress opened a tantalizingly rare window for Republicans in eastern Colorado: a red seat in one of the state’s few remaining conservative strongholds that, once won, would be tough to ever lose.
“If somebody wants to be a congressman who lives in the 4th District, this opportunity rarely comes along — an open seat,” said Dick Wadhams, a Republican political operative and former chair of the Colorado Republican Party. “It basically forces the hand of people who have that ambition.”
Colorado’s 4th Congressional District spans much of the eastern part of the state, from the Wyoming state line to the Oklahoma Panhandle, taking in farming communities as well as more urban enclaves, including Loveland and Douglas County, as it wraps around most of metro Denver. It’s the most reliably Republican district in a state that’s turned deeper shades of blue for nearly a decade.
Buck, a former Weld County district attorney who linked his decision not to run again to Republican election denialism and the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot, comfortably held the seat after winning an initial election in 2014.
The seat is so safe, Republicans said, that it can serve as a springboard into U.S. House leadership. The opening provides a chance for Republicans here to break out of the minority in the state legislature or to ditch what’s become, for now, the GOP’s routine second-place finishes in statewide races.
A half-dozen candidates already have thrown their names in for 2024, including:
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- State Rep. Richard Holtorf, an Akron legislator, rancher and the House’s minority whip, who criticized Buck for not fighting for former President Donald Trump’s agenda
- Deborah Flora, a conservative filmmaker and radio host who’s embraced recent conservative criticism of the public education system
- Jerry Sonnenberg, a Logan County commissioner, rancher and former state senator who pledged to defend America’s “energy dominance”
- Ted Harvey, another ex-legislator who’s led pro-Trump super PACs
- Trent Leisy, a veteran and small business owner
- Justin Schreiber, a fellow veteran who told KRDO last month that he’s been charged with falsely reporting a break-in to police last year
Some potential contenders already have decided against a run. Kristi Burton Brown, another former state Republican party chair, said she had planned to jump into the race but decided against it, given the young age of her family.
Other prominent Republicans she’d expected to vie for the seat — including former district attorney George Brauchler, former 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Heidi Ganahl and Weld County Sheriff Steve Reams — all have decided to stay out, too, she said.
Meanwhile, others are still weighing their options.
Rep. Mike Lynch, a Wellington Republican and the Colorado House’s minority leader, told The Denver Post this week that he was still considering whether to join the scrum. Abe Laydon, the chair of the Douglas County commissioners, said in a text that he’s “continuing to actively explore how I may serve my country in Congress.”
One of his fellow commissioners, Lora Thomas, also is said to be considering a run. Thomas did not return a message seeking comment Thursday.
The primary is still more than six months away, but Wadhams and Burton Brown expect more Republicans to declare their candidacies in the coming weeks.
Anyone who isn’t in the race by early January “isn’t serious,” Wadhams said. There’s a reason to wait until the new year: Jan. 1 marks the start of a new fundraising period, meaning candidates may wait until then and start fresh, rather than posting a limited fundraising total right out of the gate.
But any candidate who waits too long risks falling behind in a crowded race in which fundraising will be key.
The district is a Republican stronghold, meaning whoever wins the June 25 primary will be in pole position to coast to Washington, D.C. But Wadhams and Burton Brown said none of the current or potential candidates has universal name recognition in the district — so whoever wins the primary will need an ample war chest to break through.
The district also has changed since the seat was last open in 2014. It now includes more suburban areas, and much of its population lives in Douglas County. Candidates will have to find a way to consolidate their own home turf — whether that’s the Eastern Plains or the suburbs — while expanding their reach beyond it.
“If you can’t raise half a million dollars — if not more — in the primary, you’re going to have a tough time telling your story and distinguishing yourself between the other candidates,” Burton Brown said.
Money aside, it remains to be seen how the candidates will make themselves stand out in a crowded, ideologically similar field.
Because the district is so safely Republican, the question of general electability is almost moot. Whoever wins the primary will almost certainly win the seat, observers say, though a couple of Democrats — including Ike McCorkle, whom Buck defeated in both 2020 and 2022 — have filed to challenge for the seat.
Burton Brown said she didn’t expect the Republican race to be too acrimonious. Candidates will instead have to position themselves as eastern Colorado’s best fighter and voice in Washington, while embracing specific policy issues — immigration, crime, the economy — and hoping that issue resonates.
“Because none of the people running have ever been elected statewide, they would probably all benefit from a campaign that shows voters who they are and pushes their record and their story to voters,” she said. “Because CD4 is the most heavily Republican district in the state, basically what you have to do to win CD4 is pitch yourself as the most conservative champion for the seat, and who can go take the rural-suburban mix of the district.”
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