Why Southern Nigeria must retain presidency in 2027

Laolu Akande, a former aide to ex-Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, has called for a political arrangement to ensure Southern Nigeria retains the presidency in 2027, completing an eight-year rotational cycle.

Mr Akande, who served as Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity to the former Vice President, made the remarks during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Sunday in Lagos.

He argued that the South must complete its eight years in office, dismissing ongoing coalitions by some northern politicians as “child’s play.”

“The South is going to get its eight years. The North will get the next eight years. Politicians are just going to make noise. It is not going to be possible, really, (to terminate the southern term),” Mr Akande said.

He based his argument on the unwritten rotational agreement on the presidency.

“Rotational presidency has come to stay in Nigeria. There is a national consensus around the idea of a rotational presidency between the South and the North,” he said.

President Bola Tinubu ascended to the presidency following strong agitation for a power shift to the South after Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure. Ahead of the APC primaries in 2022, several governors, including many from the North, supported the power shift and opposed Ahmad Lawan’s candidacy proposed by some blocs in the party.

In the 2023 elections, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar faced a revolt within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from governors advocating for a power shift. Many voters also backed Peter Obi and his Labour Party (LP) based on the principle of power rotation.

However, ahead of the 2027 elections, the political landscape has shifted considerably. The state of the economy is likely to be a significant factor, with policies such as subsidy removal and the unification of exchange rates driving high inflation.

The opposition has criticised the government for its handling of the economy. Allegations of ethnic bias in appointments, particularly favouring the South-west region, have also emerged.

Reports suggest Atiku and some northern politicians are engaged in coalition talks ahead of the election, with meetings involving regional leaders and clerics. Meanwhile, within the ruling APC, Nasir el-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, has been seen engaging with politicians outside his party and making veiled criticisms of the administration.

Responding to questions on the possible northern coalition, Mr Akande said, “Anybody trying to reverse that (rotational presidency) is just joking. It’s not going to work.”

Osinbajo’s political future

Mr Akande had supported his principal, Mr Osinbajo, for the APC presidential ticket in 2022. However, after losing the primaries, the former vice president has largely stayed away from active politics.

Messrs Osinbajo and Tinubu share a long history, with the former serving as Attorney General under Mr Tinubu when he was governor of Lagos State. Many saw Mr Osinbajo’s presidential ambition as a betrayal, given Mr Tinubu’s role in nominating him as vice president in 2014.

Asked about Mr Osinbajo’s current political stance, Mr Akande said, “I don’t want to get the man [Osinbajo] involved in my own commentary, but there is no reason to think that he is no longer in the APC. He is still a member of APC.

“If he gets an invitation to the caucus, he will be there,” he added.

APC Merger failed to solve Nigeria’s problems

Mr Akande also criticised the political merger that formed the APC, saying it has failed to address Nigeria’s core challenges.

“The problems facing Nigeria are beyond political arrangements,” he said.

“All of these political mergers are not going to solve Nigeria’s problems. In 2014, there was a merger that led to the APC. There were great expectations across the country. The APC carried the national wave. Nine years later, where are we?

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“We are nowhere different from where we were then because the core issues have been left unaddressed.

“So, even if these new mergers succeed, they will only change the faces in Government House. We need to understand that there are fundamental problems that must be tackled, and we cannot leave them to politicians.”

He added that the ongoing merger talks would not change the country and would likely repeat the APC’s trajectory.

“That’s why you hear the noise about mergers everywhere. It’s just going to be a repeat of what happened with the APC. We must unite as Nigerians to address the core issues,” he said.

Mr Akande stressed the need for a national consensus on minimum governance standards.

“We need to agree that, regardless of political parties, ethnic differences, or religious affiliations, there are minimum standards that anyone running Nigeria or a state government must meet.

“People outside the political process must rise up and push for these concerted efforts across party, regional, and ethnic lines,” he said.