Modi 3.0 is not the same as Modi 2.0 — short of a simple majority in the Lok Sabha, a far cry from its 2019 tally of 303. But with other NDA allies, the BJP is in a safe position to pass legislations. However, in the Upper House, it is still three seats short of the majority mark.
In 2019, the Opposition had blocked the Land Reform Bill and Triple Talaq Bills in the Rajya Sabha. The Narendra Modi government could pass the Triple Talaq Bill only in its second stint — when it had friendly opposition parties like the BJD, YSRCP, BRS and AIADMK on its side.
But a bruised Naveen Patnaik, who lost power in Odisha, has clearly instructed BJD’s Rajya Sabha MPs to side with the larger opposition; chances are that Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP may follow suit after being defeated in Andhra Pradesh by the National Democratic Alliance. Then there’s the AIADMK which had a fallout with the BJP over the latter’s rising southern star K Annamalai. Next comes K Chandrashekhar Rao’s BRS which was at the receiving end of PM Modi’s sharp political attacks and ED’s liquor gate investigation, and is now unlikely to be as cooperative with a less-mighty BJP.
So, how would the BJP then pass crucial legislations in Modi 3.0 in the Rajya Sabha?
HOW IS BJP PLACED IN THE RAJYA SABHA?
The BJP-led NDA is just three seats short of a majority in the Rajya Sabha. With the election to 56 Rajya Sabha seats earlier this year, the BJP has inched closer to 100. It managed to win 30 of the 56 seats, taking its score in the Upper House to 97 and the NDA to 118.
Now, the majority mark in the 245-member Rajya Sabha is 123. However, five seats are vacant currently. Four of them are from Jammu and Kashmir, which has been under President’s Rule, and one seat is in the nominated member category. This brings down the strength of the House to 240 and brings down the majority mark to 121.
While the BJP’s Lok Sabha numbers have dropped from 303 to 240 and the Congress’s tally jumped from 52 to 99 seats, the Rajya Sabha remains unaffected by that as its strength is decided by respective parties’ strength in state assemblies.
WHY ‘FRIENDLY PARTIES’ WON’T SIDE WITH BJP
While it was always understood that the BJP would fight friendlier opposition parties in the states, this time, it ended up demolishing the house of Naveen Patnaik, bringing down the decades-old BJD government in Odisha. However, what may have caused a serious rapture in the working relationship, particularly with respect to the BJD and the BRS, is the perceived personal attack.
During the peak of the election campaign, a video of Naveen Patnaik’s aide VK Pandian grabbing his trembling hand during a rally went viral. Top BJP leaders shared the video with even the Prime Minister jumping in to promise an inquiry into the reason behind the BJD chief’s “deteriorating health”. He sent out two messages — Naveen Patnaik isn’t in the best of health to rule the state and floated a conspiracy theory behind this deterioration in health. Elections may be over, but Patnaik hasn’t forgotten nor forgiven.
The BRS is bitter against the BJP for the Enforcement Directorate and CBI investigations against its top leaders in the Delhi liquor scam that saw even K Kavitha, daughter of former chief minister KCR, being arrested by the CBI. The Rao family took it as a personal attack.
SO WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
A Union Minister News18 spoke to laughed off the prospect of any challenges in the Rajya Sabha. “It is just a matter of few seats. You saw how even INDI Alliance partners backed us on the resolution of the Emergency. It’s a divided house. But we aren’t worried about it right now. We will cross the bridge when we come to it,” the minister said on condition of anonymity, referring to INDIA bloc allies like the TMC and the SP supporting the government on the resolution on Emergency.
Government sources say that backchannel talks never dried up with few opposition parties, particularly the TMC, which claims the Centre owes it Rs 7,000 crore under the 100-days work scheme, a matter that comes under the Rural Development Ministry. While the TMC’s top echelons had an icy relationship with Giriraj Singh in Modi 2.0, they are known to have a warm one with Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the present agriculture minister.
A government source suggested that ‘understanding’ on crucial legislations in the Modi 3.0 always remains an option. Even in the last Lok Sabha tenure, the TMC had gone on record to say it wasn’t averse to giving “issue-based support” to the government.
The government source added that writing off YSRCP completely from the picture would be naive. Jagan Mohan Reddy aide Vijay Sai Reddy, who would continue to be YSRCP leader in Rajya Sabha, shares a working relationship with the government. He has already met Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw regarding a few rail projects in Andhra Pradesh and the Metro rail project in Vizag.
The four Lok Sabha seats that come under J&K have been lying vacant for years. Now with the impending Assembly election in the Union Territory of J&K, that too after the delimitation which politically suits the BJP, the party hopes to get two Rajya Sabha seats as and when elections take place.
