The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, argues that Russian forces have been ordered to shape a buffer zone along the border and push towards Kharkiv.
“Routine indirect fire, in combination with continued glide bomb and missile strikes, would likely be intended to set conditions for a larger offensive effort against Kharkiv city at a later date,” the institute said. But Russia doesn’t have to try to capture the city to control it.
The institute warned the city of 1.8 million will be in range of artillery if Russian forces are able to advance another dozen kilometers from their current positions. But trying to overrun the city would be a monumental task for the Russians — let alone maintaining an occupation.
Beyond Kharkiv, one risk Ukraine is facing is that Putin makes another attempt to take the area around the capital. As a precaution Ukrainian officials are planning to reinforce Kyiv.
Five of the 10 new brigades to be raised in the coming weeks will be deployed to protect the capital. But that strikes at one of the main criticisms of Zelenskyy and his government recently – namely that it has been slow to prepare for the Russian offensive and has only belatedly accepted that raising more troops is crucial.
With the guns of May now booming that attitude has changed. A new law, which comes into effect this week, gives greater powers to enlistment officers and will make life harder for draft dodgers, with penalties including freezing their bank accounts.
“This situation, when some people are fighting at the front lines while others are living their quiet lives, is obviously coming to an end,” Dmitry Lazutkin, a defense ministry spokesman, told Ukrainian television station Espresso. “With such an enemy as Russia, the whole country needs to mobilize,” he said.
