After a summer surge for the Democrats, former President Donald Trump may have reclaimed a narrow lead over Kamala Harris, according to a new Times/Siena Poll of voters released Sunday.
The national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College from Sept. 3 to 6 found, between the two candidates, Trump slightly leads Harris 48% to 46%. This falls within the poll’s three-percent-point margin of error, leaving the candidates in a deadlock.
The results remain largely unchanged from the previous Times/Siena poll taken after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid in July, but marks a surprise shift for many from the rocketing enthusiasm following the announcement of Harris’s candidacy and the Democratic National Convention.
The twist comes days before the candidates are scheduled to take the stage for a debate Tuesday, their only scheduled debate, and only eight weeks out from the election.
Several polls through August found the former president’s lead over Biden vanished and Harris gaining advantages in many.
According to the Times/Siena poll, the candidates remain within 3% in seven swing states highlighted in the poll: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
The poll found Trump’s favorability rating similar to the July results, with 27% rating the former president very favorable, 19% somewhat favorable, 10% somewhat unfavorable, and 42% very unfavorable.
Harris’s favorability ratings also remained similar, with 24% finding the vice president very favorable, 21% somewhat favorable, 13% somewhat unfavorable, and 37% very unfavorable.
More voters expressed interest in knowing more about Harris ahead of the debate, with 31% expressing interest in learning more and 67% saying they knew all they needed to. Twelve percent of voters expressed they needed to know about Trump.
Asked what they needed to learn about the candidates, 63% of voters expressed interest in Harris’s policies/plans and 48% Trump’s policies/plans. Ten percent wanted to know everything or more information generally about Harris.
Voters also described Trump as the “change candidate” more than Harris, with 51% saying he represents major change over Harris’s 25%.
Of the major issues in this year’s presidential election, 21% of voters polled listed the economy as the top issue deciding their vote in November. Just over half of the voters polled said the country’s current economic conditions are poor.
Abortion ranked as the next in line with 14% of the vote, followed by immigration with 12%.
Asked which candidates would do better on the issues, 56% said Trump on the economy, 55% said Harris on abortion and 53% said Trump on immigration.
As the sitting vice president, voters polled connected Harris to ongoing issues, with 37% saying she carried “a lot of blame” for problems at the border and 25% saying she carried some blame. Similarly, over 50% said she carried at least some blame for rising prices.
Voters also emphasized the importance of this election in their answers, reflecting the urgency also present in the last presidential election.
Of those polled, 65% said this election is the most important election of their lifetime. In the Times/Siena poll taken in September 2020, 74% of voters called the election the most important of their lifetime.
