“Raw facts are largely ignored by the two main parties,” said IFS Director Paul Johnson, a mild-mannered, bespectacled economist not normally prone to hyperbole.
He accused Labour and the Conservatives of a “conspiracy of silence” over Britain’s economic predicament, with neither party prepared to level with voters about what’s coming down the track.
“On the big issues over which governments have direct control — on how they will change tax, welfare, public spending — the manifestos of the main parties provide thin gruel indeed,” he said. “On July 4 we will be voting in a knowledge vacuum.”
The underlying reality is stark. Taxes will have to go up even further over the next parliament, Johnson said, unless already underfunded public services are to be cut back further. Both parties are already promising extra money for health and defense, he noted, though neither has a realistic plan for how this might be funded.
Economic plans rely heavily upon rapid growth, although how this will be achieved is far from clear.
“If better growth materializes in the next parliament — and it might — that will be largely due to good luck,” Johnson said. “We should hope it happens. But hoping for the best is not a strategy.”
