Turkey had momentous local elections over the weekend. On March 31 around 48 million people voted out of around 16 million who could have voted. This is a good turnout and shows that in Turkey there is a vibrant demand for democracy. This comes after two decades of basically one-party rule by the authoritarian AKP. That party has dominated politics for two decades, but it has not always had a majority of voters. It’s ability to control Turkey comes through alliances and also splitting the opposition. In recent years the opposition has become better at uniting.
In essence, the voters in Turkey have a choice between the authoritarian and right-wing religious AKP, which has channeled political Islam into politics and has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood; and parties that represent the secular nationalist tradition, and those that are more left or far-right. For instance many people in the Kurdish areas of eastern Turkey vote for the DEM party. In western Turkey, along the coast, the secular nationalist CHP is more popular. The AKP has been more popular historically in the center of Turkey, which is more religious and traditional. It faces an uphill struggle in some municipalities because of the rise of the MHP and other parties that often offer various forms of far-right nationalist slates that appeal to people.
The opposition has claimed a major victory after many non-AKP parties appeared to perform well. Ekrem Imamoglu, the CHP leader in Istanbul pulled off an exciting victory. It wasn’t his first. He also won in local elections in 2019. Of course, this is important, because Istanbul has some 19 million residents. The city has more people than many countries. Therefore these votes have the chance of transforming Turkey, or at least preventing its slide into more authoritarianism and religious extremism under the AKP.
It’s obvious that many in Turkey are tiring of the endless leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, Erdogan has benefited from a world that has become more authoritarian in the last two decades. He’s not the only example of a leader who clings to power. Russia’s Putin, China’s leader, and many others are walking in the same direction. They all want a new world order in which the West’s liberal democratic traditions are replaced. Turkey’s leader has often been a vocal opponent of Israel.
Turkey’s exceptions to its pro-Palestinian stance
However, Turkey also likes to carve out some exceptions to that populist pro-Palestinian ranting. This is because Ankara likes trade deals with Israel and also doesn’t want Israel-Greece-Cyprus ties to become too cemented. Turkey, for instance, occupies northern Cyprus since the 1970s when Turkey invaded the island. Turkey has also invaded Syria, displacing Kurds in Afrin in 2018 and carrying out other attacks against the US-backed SDF. Ankara also plays a role in northern Iraq. It claims to be fighting the PKK who it labels terrorists.
Turkey therefore has an important role to play in the region. Its role has often been destabilizing and has backed some extremist groups. However, some people, believe Turkey will one day balance Iran and Russia in the region. So far this has not happened. Turkey continues to have warm ties to both Iran and Russia. Ankara also works closely with Doha, and both Doha and Ankara host Hamas members.
At the same time, Turkey and Qatar are both Western allies via NATO in Turkey’s case and via “major non-NATO ally” status in Qatar’s case. What this means is that two western allies host Hamas. Hamas is also backed by Iran and Russia, and by China to some extent. This means that this grouping of states, Turkey-Iran-Russia-China, are actively working against the West, and often with groups like Hamas, to some extent. This presents a major challenge for the West and Israel.
The elections in Turkey are a setback for Erdogan. Ankara will likely seek to launch more military operations in Iraq or Syria to get more populist support. It will also likely replace Kurdish mayors who were elected in eastern Turkey, thus rolling back the democratic successes of minorities. The overall effect of the elections in the Middle East will be to inspire some who still want a say in politics and want democracy at home. Because Turkey is a large Muslim country and also a democracy with a strong secular tradition, it has a lot of influence in the region and the world.
It has sought to displace other traditional leaders of the Islamic world, such as Saudi Arabia, in this respect. Therefore the elections have ramifications in Europe and the Middle East and even far beyond. Turkey plays an increasing role in Africa, for instance, where it seeks influence in Somalia, Sudan and other places. It also has a role in Libya. Turkey also seeks to sell its Bayraktar drones abroad. In Ukraine it also has interests. As such it sits atop many “files” that matter globally. The elections will play into that. Several years ago Ankara was involved in cooking up many crisis in the eastern Mediterranean. It remains to be seen if it will go back to that crisis drive. It may be waiting to see what happens in US elections in the fall.
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