As Maharashtra gears up for its upcoming Assembly elections, likely to happen in mid-October, the political temperature in the state has risen significantly. With the election code of conduct expected to be announced next month, all major political parties have intensified their campaigns.
The state is witnessing a surge in political yatras, with Ajit Pawar’s ‘Jan Sanman Yatra’, Sharad Pawar and Jayant Patil’s ‘Shiv Swarajya Yatra’, Raj Thackeray’s ‘Navnirman Yatra’, Prakash Ambedkar’s ‘Arakshan Bachao Yatra’, and Congress’s ‘Mumbai Nyay Yatra’ crisscrossing the landscape.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is set to kick off its official campaign on August 16, with an event at Mumbai’s Shanmukhananda Hall, followed by a Congress rally on August 20, marking Rajiv Gandhi’s birth anniversary. Rahul Gandhi is expected to address this rally. In response, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance will launch its ‘Maha Samvad Yatra’ on the same day in Kolhapur, with leaders paying their respects at the Mahalaxmi temple.
WHY THE EARLY START?
The Assembly election campaign has begun unusually early this year, largely due to the complex political scenario in Maharashtra. With two factions each of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), along with the Congress and BJP, the political landscape is crowded and unpredictable. The challenge of seat allocation within alliances adds further pressure, with intra-party dissent threatening to disrupt the campaign’s momentum. The early start also serves as a strategy to curb rebellion within party ranks, where aspiring candidates may revolt if not accommodated.
THE MVA
The MVA, buoyed by its recent success in the Lok Sabha elections, enters the Assembly race with high morale. However, the dynamics of a Lok Sabha election, which revolve around national issues and broader narratives, differ significantly from the Assembly polls. Here, the strength of the party’s local organisation and the candidate’s influence within their constituency are paramount. While the MVA’s strategy of fielding relatively unknown candidates worked well in the Lok Sabha, it remains uncertain whether this approach will succeed in the Assembly elections.
The NCP and Shiv Sena, under the leadership of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, respectively, face a shortage of strong candidates. This is primarily due to the defection of many of their prominent leaders to the factions led by Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde. In contrast, the Congress, despite internal challenges, has managed to retain its leadership, although it still lacks a strong face in the state. While Congress leaders in Delhi and Maharashtra are aware that the alliance’s success depends heavily on the leadership of Pawar and Thackeray, they recognise the need for a unified and strategic approach.
THE MAHAYUTI
On the other hand, the BJP faces the tough challenge of negotiating seat-sharing agreements within the Mahayuti alliance. In the last Assembly elections, the BJP won 105 seats and has since garnered the support of 10 independent MLAs. This places the BJP in a strong position to demand a significant share of the 288 Assembly seats.
However, this leaves fewer seats for the factions led by Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde, which won only one and seven Lok Sabha seats, respectively, setting the stage for intense internal conflict.
Adding to the BJP’s concerns is the ongoing unrest in Marathwada, where activist Manoj Jarange continues to criticise the Mahayuti, particularly targeting BJP leaders. The party finds itself in a dilemma – ignoring the criticism could allow to gain negative traction among the public, while responding might only amplify it on social media platforms.
TIME TO WOO
It remains to be seen how much attention will be given to the state’s pressing issues in these campaigns, and to what extent these will influence voters. The use of caste and religion as electoral tools is already evident. With popular welfare schemes being highlighted, and opposition parties promising even more, the voters are being enticed with promises wrapped in the familiar rhetoric of caste, religion, and regional pride.
THE RAJ THACKERAY FACTOR
Focus will also be on the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Party (MNS), which has announced a plan to possibly contest 250 seats. This has raised many questions including whether Raj Thackeray will go solo in this election?
Raj, who had supported Mahayuti and given his unconditional support to PM Modi in the recently held general elections, could not bag a single seat.
For the past two assembly polls, Raj’s MNS is winning only one seat. The MNS chief is trying to garner the support of Maharashtra and his cadre, by posing his party as the third option for the voters. Whether it works remains to be seen.
Amid the festive season of Shravan and upcoming Ganeshotsav, the atmosphere in Maharashtra is not just celebratory, but also politically charged. The state is bracing for what promises to be one of the most fiercely contested Assembly elections in recent memory, a true democratic festival in its own right.
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