Yet some analysts see Sinn Féin’s growth in Northern Ireland within a growing Catholic community as inevitably paving the way for such a referendum, a trend strengthened by Friday’s results. These highlighted how younger voters on the Irish nationalist side of Northern Ireland’s divide powerfully back Sinn Féin, not its moderate rival, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which retained its own two MPs.
“The under-30s in the nationalist community overwhelmingly support Sinn Féin. They look to Sinn Féin and want to vote for change — a party that wants nothing to do with Westminster,” said Brian Feeney, a one-time SDLP politician and former history teacher in Belfast who now analyzes Northern Irish politics.
“As the demographics keep changing in the favor of nationalists, the north of Ireland is changing,” said Feeney, who sees East Londonderry as destined to fall to Sinn Féin as the party keeps turning the electoral map from unionist orange to nationalist green. “Next time, Gregory Campbell or whoever the DUP candidate is will lose the seat.”
For now, Sinn Féin is sticking to its policy of refusing to let its MPs take their place on the green benches of the House of Commons, citing the obligation to give an oath of allegiance to King Charles.
However some commentators, such as Sam McBride of the Belfast Telegraph, think it’s only a question of time before Sinn Féin ends its boycott on British parliamentary politics — if only to gain a powerful new platform for demanding a vote on a united Ireland.
They cite Sinn Féin’s slow march away from its pre-Bobby Sands existence as an IRA mouthpiece committed to overthrowing governments, not running them.
“History is littered,” McBride argued, “with the debris of Sinn Féin’s discarded positions.”
