ALEX Salmond has insisted Scotland will become independent in the next ten years despite the Yes movement being weaker than a decade ago.
The former First Minister predicted the break-up of the UK within his lifetime as he reflected on this week’s tenth anniversary of the historic independence referendum.
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In an interview with The Scottish Sun, he blasted his successor Nicola Sturgeon for failing to further the cause — claiming “the locusts had eaten” the past decade.
Mr Salmond, 69, looked back following a decade of drama post-Indyref, including Brexit in 2016 and then a criminal trial in 2020 where he was cleared of 14 sexual assault charges.
Support for independence remains at similar levels to 2014 but polling indicates no great clamour for another vote soon.
Asked if he expected to see another referendum, Mr Salmond insisted: “Well, whether it’s a referendum or not, I think Scotland will be independent in my lifetime.”
MORE ON TEN YEARS POST INDYREF
He maintained that if the UK Government continues to refuse a re-run of the 2014 contest, pro-indy parties should make clear that a vote for them at the next Holyrood election is effectively a vote for Scotland to become independent.
And those parties gaining a majority of regional list votes plus a parliamentary majority should be the trigger to declare independence.
Pressed on when Scotland could go it alone from the rest of the UK, he said: “We’ve already compressed it into my lifetime, so let’s compress it into the next ten years.”
Ms Sturgeon succeeded her ex-mentor as First Minister in November 2014.
But Mr Salmond had few kind words to say about his former No2’s subsequent performance.
Assessing the independence movement now, he said: “I think it was stronger the day after the referendum because you had effectively both the party of independence at that time, and the SNP, sailing upwards, and you had independence [support] up about 50 per cent.”
Mr Salmond announced he was stepping down the day after Yes lost.
He recalled: “I wasn’t under any pressure to resign but by taking responsibility it cleared the field for the SNP. Those who lost the referendum emerged very quickly as the political winners.”
Asked if he regretted quitting in light of this, he simply said: “Yeah.”
Pushed on how long he should have stayed on, Mr Salmond said: “Well, that’d be up to the people.
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“I thought on September 19th, 2014, the heavy lifting had been done.
“There aren’t many countries in the world where you get to almost 50 per cent support for independence and then go backwards. That’s very, very unusual.”
Salmond: ‘Sturgeon missed opportunities for Indy’
In swipes at Ms Sturgeon, he pinpointed “a number of missed opportunities” including failing to capitalise on Brexit.
Mr Salmond said: “You have to ask yourself why that influence wasn’t turned into a tangible gain for Scotland.”
After a year of intense campaigning and a record turnout — a staggering total of 4,283,392 people, or 84.59 per cent of voters, had their say — No won the 2014 contest by 55.3 per cent to Yes’s 44.7 per cent.
‘Indy would have happened if The Scottish Sun backed Yes’
SCOTLAND could be independent if The Scottish Sun had backed Yes, Alex Salmond claims.
We stayed neutral on the momentous question in 2014, with the country split down the middle — and weighty arguments on both sides.
And Mr Salmond said: “If The Sun had come out, as was a possibility, for Yes, that might have affected the balance. In the last stages of a very close race, small things can be decisive.”
Ten years on, Mr Salmond insisted the infamous row over the currency for an independent Scotland was not a decisive factor. He said the impact of the dispute over the Pound — Westminster chiefs ruled out his plan for a currency union — had “been way overblown”.
A poll two weeks before the historic day had given Yes their first lead of the campaign – 51 per cent to 49 per cent, excluding undecideds.
And Mr Salmond was convinced then that Scotland would back indy.
He added: “We thought our biggest danger was that working-class Scots in particular might not turn out.
“In the event, of course, working-class Scots turned out overwhelmingly for Yes.
“Well, whether it’s a referendum or not, I think Scotland will be independent in my lifetime.”
Alex Salmond
“What we underestimated was other parts of the population who turned out even more for No. So that was a bit of a miscalculation.”
Mr Salmond blamed the defeat on UK parties’ pledge for “extensive new powers” for Holyrood. Control over income tax was devolved in 2016. But the most detailed academic study of Indyref revealed the devo promise known as The Vow was not a key factor in the outcome.
The Scottish Referendum Study quizzed almost 5,000 voters after the referendum — before politicians had a chance to tell them why they had voted the way they did.
It found that less than 3.7 per cent of No voters backed the Union mainly because Scotland would get more powers. In a list of six options, it was the least popular.
Confident Alex made £20 bet
BY MATT BENDORIS, Chief Features Writer
IT was the night of the indy referendum when I saw horse-racing fan Alex Salmond return to his old gambling habits.
The renowned punter declared: “Let’s check the odds — they should have started to tumble about now.”
But the online bookmakers hadn’t budged all day from 2/5 for No and 11/4 for Yes.
Undeterred, Alex placed bets of £20 a pop across various bookies’ sites on Scots voting to go it alone.
But even a non-gambler like myself could tell his final flutter was pure folly.
It was around 8pm and I had already spent 11 hours as the only journalist embedded with the then First Minister on his day of destiny.
We had started with the traditional vote-casting photo-call, as the SNP leader breezed into the polling station in his home village of Strichen, Aberdeenshire.
Then we toured his constituency as he puckered up for a kiss with undecided voter Rose Michie, 69, and even a German short-haired pointer called Hector.
But the smiles soon turned to scowls on the campaign trail when he walked down Ellon’s Main Street and an elderly woman told him straight to his face that she was voting No.
Alex then asked another passer-by whether he had voted and received the curt reply, “Yes”. No confirmation if his “Yes” had been for Yes but I reckoned it’d be a No.
He gave a final rallying call to campaigners on the steps of Inverurie Town Hall before we disappeared for a meal at Eat On The Green in Udny Green, near Ellon, along with his wife Moira and the First Minister’s closest advisers.
It was in the plush restaurant’s private upstairs office where Alex placed his bets on a nation fulfilling his lifelong dream.
Bizarrely, he then ordered champagne — which most people only do when there is something to celebrate.
As it turned out, within hours the corks would be popping for the No campaign, leaving this gambler’s virtual betting slips — and the hopes of 45 per cent of Scots — in a crumpled heap.
The top reason was people felt British and believed in the Union, followed by too many unanswered questions, and that independence would have made Scotland worse off. Asked if he was deluding himself about the impact of the powers pledge, given the academic verdict, Mr Salmond replied: “Yes, I know about academics. Academics told us we had absolutely no chance of winning the referendum, ever.
“And yet, just a couple of years later, we had David Cameron phoning up every head of state in the world, panicking and appealing for support because he thought he’d have to explain to Her Majesty the Queen how he’d lost Scotland.”
‘They lost the grip of governance’
Mr Salmond said that to guarantee consistent, majority support for independence, better governance was needed at Holyrood.
And he said Ms Sturgeon had to take her “share of the blame” for the lack of progress over the past decade.
He said: “If you govern Scotland well, if you show you can run the shop in the Scottish Parliament, then it’s likely to give people more confidence to advance to independence.
“Somewhere along the way, they lost that grip of governance.”
“I thought on September 19th, 2014, the heavy lifting had been done.”
Alex Salmond
Critics have in recent years urged Alba Party leader Mr Salmond to quit politics.
Read more on the Scottish Sun
Asked if he will retire if he fails to win a seat in two years’ time, the Hearts fan said: “Oh, I intend to lead Alba into the Scottish Parliament in 2026. That’s my full intention.
“And if that doesn’t work, then I’ll probably go back to grabbing the family season ticket at Tynecastle, and hope by then we’re in a vein of form.”
