Sagar Lok Sabha Seat: BJP Has Clear Edge But Can Congress Spring A Surprise in This Madhya Pradesh Constituency?

Sagar is one of the 29 Lok Sabha constituencies in Madhya Pradesh. It is spread over the Sagar and Vidisha districts and has the eight assembly segments of Bina (Congress), Khurai (BJP), Surkhi (BJP), Naryoli (BJP), Sagar (BJP), Kurwai (BJP), Sironj (BJP), and Shamshabad (BJP). As is evident, the constituency is a Bharatiya Janata Party stronghold, which has MLAs for seven of its assembly segments.

Rajbahadur Singh of the BJP is the incumbent MP here but the party has given the ticket this time to Lata Wankhede while Guddu Raja Bundela from the Congress is the other top contender. The seat will have polling on May 7 in the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections.

Political dynamics

1. The result of the Lok Sabha election in Sagar appears to be a foregone conclusion, with observers on the ground giving the BJP a significant advantage over the Congress. Since seven assembly segments in Sagar, barring Bina which has a Congress MLA, are represented by the BJP, it has a strong organisation and support base across the parliamentary constituency.
2. Lata Wankhede, one of the four women candidates fielded by the BJP from Madhya Pradesh is in pole position to win in Sagar. On the ground, the BJP is actively campaigning and taking the message of “Vikas” among voters. To its credit, the BJP is appreciated across the constituency for delivering solid development work over the past 10 years. Now, the saffron party is promising to double down on its development push here and is also committing to bringing more industries to the constituency to address unemployment-related concerns.
3. The Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Classes here make up a bulk of the electorate. However, inputs from the ground suggest that this being a Lok Sabha election in which Narendra Modi is seeking the mandate once again, caste and community-based politics will not have much impact. The Hindu vote here is largely expected to go the BJP’s way, and that is all the party needs for a victory. In 2019 too, the BJP had scored an impressive vote share of 62% from Sagar. That support base is largely intact.
4. The BJP has been consciously working to make inroads among the SC voters in Sagar. Last year, PM Modi laid the foundation stone of a temple dedicated to Sant Ravidas, who has a significant following here.
5. The BJP, since 2009 at least, seems to have settled on the strategy to field new candidates every election. This is in an attempt to offset the prospects of defeat even if the slightest anti-incumbency may have emerged against the present MP. With Lata Wankhede this time, the party is looking to expand its reach among women voters as well.
6. Wankhede has made the safety and welfare of women one of her biggest poll planks. A former chairperson of the state women’s commission, Wankhede intends to focus on raising awareness about women’s issues and is advocating for policies aimed at improving access to education and healthcare in the constituency. She has also promised to crack down on violence against women, something Madhya Pradesh is infamous for. On the ground, almost every woman has a horrifying story to share. Domestic violence in particular is a big problem, but has never been able to become an election issue. However, Lata Wankhede is coming across as a ray of hope for several women with her vocal stand against violence.
7. The Congress, in 2019, could muster a vote share of just about 33%. That dwarfs in comparison to the BJP’s vote share, which was more than 62%. In the absence of a multi-cornered contest, the only way the Congress can win the Sagar constituency is if it dramatically increases its own vote share and also plays a singlehanded role in significantly denting the BJP’s support base. However, none of that appears to be happening right now.
8. Congress candidate Guddu Raja Bundela is largely seen as an outsider who has been airdropped onto the voters of Sagar from Uttar Pradesh. People here say he has no significant political record of working for the benefit of Sagar. While the Congress is giving its best on the ground, it appears the voters are not very impressed and are determined to stick with the BJP.
9. The dismal performance of the Congress in the last assembly polls, where it won just one of the seven assembly segments from Sagar, has further exacerbated its organisational weakness. The BJP is the unrivalled dominant force here, and to wrest the seat the Congress would require nothing short of a miracle.
10. The biggest issue the Congress is focussing on is unemployment. Owing to a lack of industries, there is a critical shortage of jobs in Sagar. In fact, this is the recurrent theme across several constituencies of Madhya Pradesh. While the Congress’s focus on joblessness could dent the BJP marginally, it will still not be sufficient to unseat the saffron party. The general consensus among voters is issues that still require addressal, like unemployment, stand a real chance of getting resolved only with Narendra Modi and the BJP in power.

Key issues

Lack of industries and employment: The Congress has a good reason to be focussing on unemployment. Joblessness among the youth especially is forcing them to migrate to other states and cities in search of livelihood. While Sagar does have a small industrial area, there are no significant plants and factories that can contribute to lowering the unemployment rate of the constituency. There is talk of setting up an IT hub in Sagar, but it remains just that – talk. Unemployment is one issue people are concerned about and want the government to address urgently.

Development: The past 10 years have seen significant development in Sagar. The state of education and health has improved considerably, and so has road connectivity in the region. Prime Minister Modi’s flagship schemes to provide houses, tap water, electricity, and other amenities have reached the underprivileged, contributing to the perception among voters that development is finally taking place before their lives and is actually changing their lives for the better.

Demand for an active and visible MP: Among the major complaints of voters in Sagar is that incumbent BJP MP Rajbahadur Singh was not active on the ground and did not engage with his constituents on a regular basis. This could be one of the reasons why the BJP dropped him for the ongoing polls. Voters now want to see the next MP working for their interests and representing them to the best of his or her ability. Moreover, there are also those who demand greater emphasis to be laid on the candidates contesting and voting on the basis of who can represent Sagar better. There are many voters who also believe that focussing only on the Modi factor is not a viable strategy.

College and student conundrum: An issue that seems to have agitated many here, especially the youth, is that the central and state universities here are not providing admissions to students belonging to Sagar, and are instead taking in a large number of students from other areas and even states. The complaint is particularly pronounced when it comes to the admission trends of the medical college here.

Hindutva & Modi: With the January consecration ceremony at the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the BJP and Modi are being seen as those who can deliver on some core Hindu demands. India’s improved global standing and the influence it has come to command are being duly noted and appreciated by voters. The image of Modi as a Prime Minister who takes decisive decisions and who is unapologetic about being a Hindu is very much helping the BJP. Add to that, the improved law and order situation as well as the overall security situation in the country are working towards the BJP’s favour here.

Demographics

• Total voters: 15,73,504
• SC: 350,891 (22.3%)
• ST: 86,543 (5.5%)
• Rural: 1,117,188 (71%)
• Urban: 456,316 (29%)
• Muslims: 113,905 (7.2%)
• Voter turnout in 2019: 65.4%

Infrastructure development

Education: The Dr Harisingh Gour University, spread over 1,000 acres of land has turned the face of education in Sagar around. Apart from this, the setting up of a state university is also being appreciated. A new educational opportunity is on the horizon for aspiring students in the districts of Sagar and Damoh with the establishment of Rani Avanti Bai Lodhi Government University. The university is expected to affiliate with 54 private and government colleges from Sagar and 18 institutions from Damoh, potentially benefiting a combined enrollment of 70,000 students. The move comes as a relief to many students who previously faced challenges due to the need to frequently travel to Chhatarpur for educational purposes.

Health: The Bundelkhand Medical College, which was inaugurated by Shivraj Singh Chouhan in 2009, has improved the health infrastructure of the constituency, with people no longer having to travel long distances for small and easily diagnosable and treatable ailments. Now, the BJP government of Madhya Pradesh has also announced that 150 new MBBS seats will be added to the college. Besides, the state government also announced in January the setting up of an Ayurveda medical college in Sagar.

Road infra: Similarly, road connectivity has seen a significant improvement compared to the UPA years. Almost every village, with the exception of a few in tribal areas, is now connected by roads. Sagar has also been included in the Smart City project of the Modi government. Other than these initiatives, the Sagar City Stadium is also a marker of development.

Elevated corridor: Another important project that was completed last year was the 1.25-km-long elevated corridor, built at Lakha Banjara Lake from Chakraghat to the Deendayal intersection. It has been built under the Smart City project at a cost of Rs 89.94 crore to reduce traffic congestion in the city. Pathways and lighting facilities have been provided on the bridge.

Honouring Sant Ravidas: In August 2023, PM Modi laid the foundation stone and dedicated to the nation several development projects in Sagar, including the Sant Shiromani Gurudev Shri Ravidas ji Memorial to be constructed at a cost of more than Rs 100 crore, two road projects to be developed at a cost of more than Rs 1,580 crore and the doubling of Kota-Bina rail route developed at a cost of more than Rs 2,475 crore.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.