Retailers are facing a mounting threat.
Whether it’s characterized as shoplifting, shrink or retail theft, stealing from stores has skyrocketed in recent years, according to new research from the National Retail Federation, the Loss Prevention Research Council and Sensormatic.
A survey of executives from 164 retail brands conducted over the summer shows that retailers experienced a 93 percent uptick in the average annual number of shoplifting incidents between 2019 and 2023, and a 90 percent increase in dollar loss due to theft during the same period.
It’s no secret that these incidents accelerated during the pandemic; emptied-out city centers and shopping malls set an optimal stage for thieves. But the rise in shoplifting has continued in the years since the COVID-19 crisis — between 2022 and 2023 alone, surveyed retailers reported a 26 percent average increase in shoplifting incidents. That’s about 177 shoplifting incidents a day last year.
“Historically, shoplifting was viewed primarily as a crime driven by need or based on opportunity. Individuals enter a store, select items of personal use like food, clothing or personal hygiene, conceal the items and attempt to leave the store unnoticed by store employees,” analysts wrote.
“Some incidents may have involved those afflicted or addicted, with others stealing items to quickly sell for cash. Even incidents like ‘smash-and-grabs’ or ‘mob thefts’ occurred occasionally, for example in the form of a burglary during non-operating hours or looting during civil unrest,” the report said.
While retailers were mostly able to mitigate the impact of intermittent incidents, there’s been a shift in the retail theft landscape in recent years. “Retail criminals are evolving,” analysts wrote. Criminals are become more brazen, more sophisticated and more methodical, employing new tactics and organizational strategies to drive efficiency.
While it’s tough to parse ORC from a run-of-the-mill shoplifting incident in the moment, retailers have homed in on certain indicators that a theft goes beyond a crime of opportunity or desperation.
More than half (58 percent) said they noted an uptick in the theft of multiple items (also known as a “shelf sweep”), and 62 percent said seeing two to three people shoplifting together is more of a common occurrence. “The broad range of items stolen is another indicator that theft is not for need,” analysts wrote.
The most popular products stolen during acts of ORC include — not surprisingly — apparel, handbags, accessories, fragrance, health and beauty products and jewelry. Electronics, medications, personal care products, power tools and hardware were also among the items named by executives.
Physical retail stores aren’t the only venues targeted by ORC criminals —in fact, crimes can span multiple platforms. Sixty-eight percent of respondents said e-commerce theft and fraud have become a greater concern over the course of the past year.
“Organized retail crime activity begins with the initial act of stealing merchandise or goods from retail stores, the supply chain and online environments,” NRF vice president of asset protection and retail operations David Johnston said. “Many of these thefts and crimes involve an organization buying the stolen goods and selling them back into the retail environment or direct to consumers.”
Among the biggest worries and liabilities for retailers is the rise in violent crime that has paralleled the growth of shoplifting.
Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of executives said thieves are acting more violent and aggressive than they did just a year earlier, and 91 percent said they’d seen a surge in violent behavior since 2019. Notably, between 2022 and 2023, retailers that have tracked these incidents said they saw a 42 percent spike in shoplifting incidents that involved threats or acts of violence. Even more disturbing, retailers reported a 39 percent increase in incidents that involved the threat, display or use of a weapon.
Retailers aren’t shrinking away from the challenge of dealing with violent threats to their stores and staff, but they also recognize that the changes they make to the retail environment in the interest of safety alter the shopping experience — and 76 percent believe those measures have a negative impact.
Locking up merchandise, adding security staff, reducing in-store product selection, reducing store hours and even closing problematic store locations altogether are the measures retailers have taken or plan to take to mitigate violent retail theft. With all this as a backdrop, 93 percent of retail executives said it’s been harder to recruit talent to work in their stores and to retain the staff they have.
Retailers are continuing to limit the staff who are authorized to intercede in the event of a theft. In 2024, 42 percent of respondents said none of their employees are authorized to approach or apprehend shoplifters, and even trained loss-prevention staff are increasingly being told to back off — just 35 percent are authorized to intervene in a theft, compared to 59 percent last year.
In light of growing threats to store security, however, retailers are engaging with third-party security companies to protect their stores and staff, including off-duty law enforcement. Forty-two percent of retailers surveyed upped their budgets for such needs over the course of the past year.
The actions retailers are taking aren’t for naught — in fact, many are seeing results in the area of apprehensions and arrests. Those surveyed reported seeing 64 percent more shoplifter apprehensions in 2023 compared to 2019, and on average, they saw an 83 percent increase in the number of shoplifting arrests during that period.
But implementing in-store safeguards and employing outside help can only go so far, according to the report’s writers. In order to truly get a handle on the evolving issue of retail crime, better coordination is needed. “Beyond the retail industry, legislators and community leaders, law enforcement and prosecutors, and the consumer can all take actions to keep retail safe and secure,” they added.
NRF recommended that state lawmakers pass legislation that makes it easier to prosecute retail crime, including allowing for the aggregation of multiple thefts under a single charge for a harsher penalty — something that California addressed in a retail theft package this fall.
At a federal level, the trade group is pushing for the passage of the Combatting Organized Retail Crime Act, which would increase coordination between federal, state and local law enforcement agencies by creating a national Organized Retail Crime Coordination Center. Almost all retailers surveyed (94 percent) said federal legislation is a must when it comes to taking on ORC.
The group also urges law enforcement, prosecutors and retailers to work together more closely, sharing information and organizing investigations or sting operations. Retailers also need to commit to consistently reporting incidents of retail theft, NRF said; in 2023, 65 percent admitted that they reported less than half of the shoplifting events at their stores to police.
On the flip side, retailers say law enforcement needs to step up their game, too. The top reasons retailers listed for not reporting included a lack of response from law enforcement bodies (62 percent) and thefts being below the felony threshold (56 percent).
“Retailers continue to grapple with theft and violence impacting the industry and the communities it serves, the people it employs and the customers who rely on it for daily products and services,” the report said. “Combating organized retail crime is not solely a retail problem to solve. It requires a whole-community approach.”
