Niels Lesniewski | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz easily dispatched a primary challenger backed by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his allies Tuesday, all but ensuring the outspoken ally of former President Donald Trump will be reelected to the House representing the Florida panhandle.
Voters also set a matchup for a Senate race in November that has grown increasingly competitive since President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid last month and the party united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
In the 1st District Republican primary, Gaetz was ahead of Aaron Dimmock, 70% to 30%, when The Associated Press called the race at 8:13 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday.
Dimmock, a retired Navy officer, benefited from more than $3 million in outside spending, though Gaetz’s fundraising prowess enabled him to combat that. Gaetz was one of several Republicans who led the move to oust McCarthy from the speakership in 2023 that the California Republican worked to defeat in GOP primaries. To date, the only McCarthy target to lose renomination was Virginia Rep. Bob Good, who was also opposed by Trump because he initially endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president.
The race in November is rated Solid Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Senate race ‘within the margin of error’
In the Senate race, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell won the Democratic primary, setting up an expected November faceoff with Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.
Mucarsel-Powell was ahead with 69% of the vote when the AP called the race at 8 p.m. Entrepreneur Stanley Campbell had 19% and two others split the rest. Scott’s race was also called at 8 p.m., when he had 84% against two challengers.
Mucarsel-Powell, who represented a House district in the Miami-Dade region for one term before being ousted by Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez in 2020, told reporters Tuesday morning that the race has tightened and was now “within the margin of error.”
Two recent polls, by Florida Atlantic University taken Aug. 10-11 and by University of North Florida taken July 24-27, found Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 47% to 43%, though a survey taken by McLaughlin & Associates from Aug. 6-8 found Scott leading by 10 points. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3 points.
Mucarsel-Powell said Scott has high name ID in the state, “which is not helping him” because he had only a 35% approval rating.
“Voters know that Rick Scott has betrayed our state at every turn,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “Believe me when I tell you we know that we can win in November.”
Scott, who flipped the Senate seat six years ago with a narrow victory over Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, was in Chicago on Monday, appearing as a surrogate for Trump as Republicans tried to counter-program the Democratic National Convention. Scott said high energy prices and regulations from the Biden-Harris administration were to blame for inflation, and he called Harris a “socialist” for proposing to control prices.
“Socialism is death, destruction, shortages, and that’s exactly what will happen if Harris gets elected,” Scott said.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales has the Florida race in the Solid Republican column.
House battles
In the primary for an open seat in the 8th District, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos appears to be on his way to Congress after winning the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Posey. Posey had backed Haridopolos to succeed him, and may have timed his April announcement that he would not seek another term to keep other candidates who might have wanted to run from having a chance to do so.
Haridopolos was leading with more than 70% of the vote when The Associated Press called the primary at 7:11 p.m.
In the 9th District, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto now knows the identity of his November challenger, a wealthy real estate developer who has already committed $2 million to the effort.
The contest moved from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic back at the beginning of April, but Thomas Chalifoux brings his own capital to the contest.
Chalifoux had nearly 50% of the vote while former state Rep. John Quiñones and Jose Castillo split the rest almost evenly when the AP made its race call at 8:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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(Jessica Wehrman, Aidan Quigley and Herb Jackson contributed to this report.)
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