QB advanced passing stats that matter for fantasy football 2024, and the one signal-caller who checks every box

Since their introduction, the prevalence of advanced statistics in fantasy football to the point of ubiquity has served as both a blessing and a curse. Use led directly (and perhaps predictably) to misuse as fantasy managers deployed statistics the way a drunk man uses a lamppost — for support rather than illumination. In this series, we’ll do the exact opposite, turning our spreadsheets inside out to create unique stat combinations. This will help us sort noises from signals and let data-backed discovery identify our targets.

(All stats courtesy of Trumedia among all 48 QBs with +125 Dropbacks in 2023)

Current Top 15 Consensus QB Ranks

Note: ADP (listed in parentheses) is per FantasyPros as of July 30

1. Josh Allen, BUF (ADP 17)
2. Jalen Hurts, PHI (26)
3. Patrick Mahomes, KC (32)
4. Lamar Jackson, BAL (36)
5. C.J. Stroud, HOU (45)
6. Anthony Richardson, IND (51)
7. Joe Burrow, CIN (58)
8. Dak Prescott, DAL (66)
9. Jordan Love, GB (71)
10. Kyler Murray, ARI (73)
11. Brock Purdy, SF (94)
12. Caleb Williams, CHI (99)
13. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (102)
14. Jared Goff, DET (103)
15. Jayden Daniels, WAS (106)

VOLUME

Volume takes on two meaningful definitions in fantasy football, and combining them makes for an interesting start to our exercise. We need quarterbacks who throw the ball frequently — NFL average 35.0 Dropbacks/Game — but also challenge the secondary +20 yards downfield — NFL average 10.5% Deep Ball Rate. Which projected starters were above average in both?

8 QBs Averaged +35 Dropbacks Per Game and +10.5% Deep Ball Rate

1. Baker Mayfield, TB — 37.4 Dropback/Gm, 12.4% Deep Attempts
2. Jordan Love, GB — 37.1 Dropback/Gm, 12.2% Deep Attempts
3. Josh Allen, BUF — 38.3 Dropback/Gm, 12.1% Deep Attempts
4. Justin Herbert, LAC — 39.8 Dropback/Gm, 11.4% Deep Attempts
5. Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 40.0 Dropback/Gm, 10.9% Deep Attempts
6. Jalen Hurts, PHI — 36.6 Dropback/Gm, 10.9% Deep Attempts
7. C.J. Stroud, HOU — 36.9 Dropback/Gm, 10.6% Deep Attempts
8. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA — 35.5 Dropback/Gm, 10.6% Deep Attempts

EFFICENCY

Efficiency is another quarterbacking term that sounds great on its face but lacks crucial context. Completing passes is a great stat — NFL average 68% Completion Rate — but can be padded by quick dump-offs to RBs or TEs that don’t move the fantasy needle. Average depth of target (ADoT) does a decent job contextualizing performance, but it can also be skewed by a rate of deep attempts downfield. Therefore, I placed focus on the percentage of passes that went beyond the first-down marker — NFL average 42% To-The-Stick Rate. Which projected starters were above average in both?

5 QBs Completed +68% Of Passes with +42% Of Attempts Beyond the First Down Marker

1. Dak Prescott, DAL — 69.5% Comp, 42.9% To Sticks
2. Kirk Cousins, MIN — 69.5% Comp, 45.0% To Sticks
3. Brock Purdy, SF — 69.4% Comp, 45.7% To Sticks
4. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA — 69.3% Comp, 48.6% To Sticks
5. Derek Carr, NO — 68.4% Comp, 39.6% To Sticks

PROCESSING

As defenses shift stylistically toward preventative coverages with disguised blitz packages, a quarterback’s ability to process and release moves to the fore. Advanced stats now allow us to precisely calculate release time — NFL average 2.69 seconds — which, like the others, lacks proper nuance on its own. However, combining it with average depth of target — NFL average 7.6 Air Yards/Attempt — provides a more layered understanding of a QB’s ability to balance fear, aggression, and the willingness to allow routes to develop. Which projected starters were above average in both?

8 QBs Posted a Sub-2.69 Second Release Time and Averaged 7.6 Air Yards/Target

1. Baker Mayfield, TB — 2.63 Avg Time, 8.6 ADoT
2. Jordan Love, GB — 2.65 Avg Time, 8.5 ADoT
3. Derek Carr, NO — 2.53 Avg Time, 7.8 ADoT
4. Justin Herbert, LAC — 2.66 Avg Time, 7.7 ADoT
5. Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 2.40 Avg Time, 8.2 ADoT
6. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA — 2.28 Avg Time, 7.6 ADoT
7. Matthew Stafford, LA — 2.54 Avg Time, 7.7 ADoT
8. Dak Prescott, DAL — 2.62 Avg Time, 7.8 ADoT

CONCLUSION

I promise I didn’t set this up as lovely as it turned out in the end, but the choice here is clear. Only one quarterback averaged more than 35 Dropbacks/Game at a maximum 2.6 seconds to release and a +10.5% Deep Ball rate, while completing more than 68% of passes with 42% of total attempts beyond the first down marker, at an average target depth over 7.7 yards — Tua Tagovailoa.

NOTE: Isolating passing statistics ignores the disproportionate scoring awarded to fantasy quarterbacks who run, so it’s no accident the top players at the position carry the ball over a hundred times a season. Racking up points on the ground provides a built-in fantasy floor, making for a very compelling sales pitch whenever offered at a suppressed price outside the top 10.

I wanted to make sure to clarify something for the sake of transparency — I’ve risked uncertainty to draft Jayden Daniels over Tua at a similar price because Washington’s first-round rookie just ran for 1,100 yards at LSU. Choosing higher upside and a lower floor makes sense if that’s your prerogative considering the remaining viability on Week 1 waiver wires in 1-QB formats. Think about the quality of quarterbacks outside the top 15 — theoretically going undrafted. Players like Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith could easily finish among the other one-dimensional QBs going +100 picks earlier. That said, given you can get both Tagovailoa and Daniels after pick 100, they make an interesting pair with a great chance to be one of this year’s ADP smash hits.

Thanks so much for reading. Comments and feedback are more than welcome, so please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my best-selling NFL + MLB Substack page for rankings, weekly projections and all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)