The most recent polling shows the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump didn’t change the course of the 2024 presidential race all that much.
According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday and taken in the days after last week’s debate, Harris holds the support of about 51% of polled registered voters, compared to Trump’s 47%. That’s the same four-point split seen in polls taken before the debate.
This is despite the fact most people told pollsters Harris came out on top in the pair’s first — and apparently only — face-to-face meeting.
“Americans broadly pick Kamala Harris as the winner of last week’s widely watched presidential debate — yet neither she nor Donald Trump moved the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates’ personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election,” pollsters wrote.
Harris’ apparent win, even if it didn’t move the needle, is nevertheless a reversal of Democratic fortunes from late June, when President Joe Biden effectively ended his presidential run with a disasterous debate performance.
“58 – 36 percent say Harris won the debate,” pollsters said, compared to this summer, when “Trump was seen as winning by 66 – 28 percent.”
Those pollsters spoke to 2,772 registered voters, and their results match a similar poll of 1,407 U.S. adults conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times, which showed “Harris was the clear winner of the debate but her narrow lead over Trump in the election was the same after the debate as before it.”
A Morning Consult Survey of 3,317 likely voters found Harris with steady support after the poll and Trump slipping slightly.
“Our one-day survey conducted on Wednesday among 3,317 likely voters found the Democratic nominee leading her Republican counterpart 50% to 45%. The 5-percentage-point margin represents a slight improvement on her 3-and 4-point leads in our surveys conducted in the lead-up to the debate, though the shift was within the surveys’ margins of error,” they wrote.
Those pollsters say that it’s hard to tell if Harris’ gain via Trump’s loss comes as a result of the debate or inertia.
“It’s too early to say whether Harris’ debate performance is the key driver of our latest head-to-head numbers, as our short-term trends suggest she was already building momentum ahead of Tuesday’s televised match-up,” they wrote.
