With each passing day, the race for the Republican nomination in New Hampshire is looking less like a foregone conclusion and more like an actual contest.
There is now less than a month to go before Granite State voters become the first in the country to cast their ballots and begin the 2024 primary cycle in earnest, and some of the White House hopefuls say they are planning to return to New Hampshire ahead of the New Year as former President Donald Trump’s polling lead there continues to shrink.
Trump has led in New Hampshire and national polls for the length of the Republican primary push that officially began over a year ago. Trump has, at times, even shown a majority of support among polled Granite State conservatives, demonstrating more sway within the party than the rest of the once full-to-bursting Republican field, combined.
However, after months of making her way up and down the length of New Hampshire, and as other candidates struggled to gain traction or dropped out of the race entirely, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley suddenly finds herself within striking distance of her former boss.
“Nikki is just 3 points away from defeating Donald Trump in a head to head match-up,” a Haley spokesperson said, citing a poll from Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity Action. “It’s no surprise Haley has doubled her support since September… she’s outworking every other fella in the race. How are we celebrating the surge? By coming back to New Hampshire! Next week, Haley will host four town halls.”
According to the poll of likely Republican primary voters, Trump would net 45% of support in New Hampshire versus Haley’s 32%. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would net 9%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would receive 6%. More than 10% of those polled said they were still undecided.
However, without the other conservatives in the race, polling shows it’s 48% for Trump, 45% for Haley, and 5% undecided.
Trump said the poll is fake news.
“Fake New Hampshire poll was released on Birdbrain. Just another scam! Ratings challenged Fox News will play it to the hilt. Sununu is now one of the least popular governors in the U.S.,” he said, via his Truth Social media platform, using his go-to nickname to describe the former South Carolina governor.
Trump has good reason to doubt the poll. A survey recently released by Saint Anselm College shows him up by 14 points, and a UMass Lowell poll released at the end of last week showed the 45th President leading Haley by 30 points.
National surveys consistently show he’s still maintaining a majority of support within the party.
Haley has been making moves, however. Earlier this month, she was able to lock down the endorsement of Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, the second governor in state history to win a fourth consecutive term. He’s also among the highest-ranking currently-serving conservatives to come out against the former president’s bid to retake the White House in 2024.
The endorsement has coincided with a sudden surge in state polling for Haley; her campaign is not wrong when it claims she’s seen a doubling of her support in New Hampshire since September. During public appearances and in recent advertisements, she’s has offered herself as an example of the “next generation” of conservative leaders that should be sent to Washington. Sununu had been making the rounds with several other Republican hopefuls, before endorsing Haley.
“Gov. Sununu has been doing everything he can to amplify Nikki’s message across New Hampshire and beyond – and it’s paying off,” her campaign said.
Haley has scheduled three days of town hall style events in New Hampshire for the short work week after Christmas, starting in Berlin on Wednesday evening. She’ll be in North Conway, Plymouth, and Lebanon on Thursday, and in Concord on Friday.
Christie, who has also been spending lots of time in the Granite State since joining the race and moving into third position, will be in Epping on Thursday and Seabrook on Friday.
New Hampshire will hold its primaries on Jan. 23.
