- A new report from the Reuters Institute suggests many media leaders are worried about their prospects in the year ahead, with almost two-thirds expressing concerns about plummeting referral traffic from social platforms.
- Up to 48% of the managers surveyed think there would be very little money for publishers in any licensing deal with AI platforms and 35% believe that most of the money would go to big publishers.
- Reader revenue is still the top priority for most of the news publishers surveyed and many report moderate or stable subscription numbers despite economic troubles and subscription fatigue.
These are some of the findings from Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2024, an annual report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, embargoed until Tuesday 9 January 2024, 00.01 GMT. The report, authored by Senior Research Associate Nic Newman, is based on a survey of 314 CEOs, editors and digital leaders from 56 countries. Here are the key findings:
1. Publishers worry about a sharp decline in referral traffic
Almost two-thirds (63%) of the media leaders surveyed say they are worried about a sharp decline in referral traffic from social platforms. Data sourced for this report from data analytics provider Chartbeat shows that traffic to news sites from Facebook fell 48% in 2023, with traffic from X (formerly known as Twitter) declining by 27%.
In response to these developments, the priorities of news publishers are changing. Up to 77% in our sample say they will focus more on their own direct channels in the next year, with a fifth (22%) resorting to cutting costs and a similar proportion (20%) experimenting with alternative third-party platforms. In terms of news formats, most of our respondents say they’ll create more video (+64 net score), more newsletters (+52), and more podcasts (+47), but broadly the same number of news articles – as they lean into some of the few remaining areas of audience and advertiser growth.
When considering third-party platforms, newsroom leaders say they will focus much less on Facebook and X and will put more resources into WhatsApp (+61 net score) and Instagram (+39) following Meta’s decision to open up broadcast channels for publishers. Interest in video networks such as TikTok (+55) and YouTube (+44) remain strong while Google Discover is becoming a more important but volatile referral source.
Nic Newman, Senior Research Associate and author of the report, said:
“Reaching audiences online is getting tougher as Facebook pulls back from news and X becomes less welcoming for publishers. The big fear is that search traffic may be next, as AI-powered results provide answers directly in the interface, rather than offering so many links to news sites”
2. Publishers are pessimistic about any deals with AI companies
As awareness and usage of AI platforms grows around the world, some news companies aim to sign licensing deals with AI platforms. But the newsroom leaders we surveyed are not optimistic about any benefits being equally shared. Around half of our respondents (48%) felt that there would be very little money for any publisher and a third (35%) believed that most of the money would go to big publishers.
Many of the publishers we surveyed see important benefits in the use of artificial intelligence. Back-end news automation (56%) is considered the most important use of the technology, followed by offering better recommendations (37%) and commercial uses (28%). Publishers are ambivalent about using AI for content creation. More than half or our respondents consider it the biggest reputational risk.
3. Only half of the executives surveyed are confident about the prospects of journalism in the year ahead
Only half (47%) of our sample of editors, CEOs and digital executives say they are confident about the prospects for journalism in the year ahead, with 12% expressing low confidence. Concerns relate to rising costs, declining advertising revenue, a slowing in subscription growth and increasing legal and physical harassment. Reasons to be cheerful include the hope that closely fought elections in the US and elsewhere could boost traffic despite the risks that this boost will be temporary and further damage trust.
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Publishers continue to invest in subscription and membership models, with a large majority of those surveyed (80%) saying this will be an important revenue stream, ahead of both display and native advertising. Most of those operating a paid model report either a slight increase, or stable subscription numbers in the last year, despite a difficult economic outlook and challenges of subscription fatigue.
Things might get even tougher this year as more platforms launch premium services, including ad-free and privacy-friendly offerings. Our report predicts this might push publishers towards bundling of digital news and non-news content as they try to lock in existing customers. All access subscriptions will likely include games, podcasts, magazines, books, and even content from other publishers.
4. Publishers bet on explainers and solutions stories to fight news avoidance
Selective news avoidance and news fatigue remain a major source of concern for media companies looking to sustain interest in news from Gaza and Ukraine. Strategies that publishers consider very important to counter these trends include better explanation of complex stories (67%), more solutions-oriented or constructive approaches to storytelling (44%) and more inspirational human stories (43%). There was less support for commissioning more positive stories (21%) or entertaining (18%) news.
Our report predicts that AI tools that change the language of news to improve relevance and understanding for particular audiences will be an increasing feature of the news landscape in 2024. Social news-reading app Artifact, for example, can summarise a news story in different styles and adapt it to different audiences. Bots, apps and browser extensions with similar capabilities may spread rapidly in 2024, putting pressure on news organisations to create similar features.
Our methodology
314 people completed a closed survey in late November and early December 2023. Participants, drawn from 56 countries, were selected because they held senior positions (editorial, commercial, or product) in traditional or digital-born publishing companies and were responsible for aspects of digital or wider media strategy. The results reflect this strategic sample of industry leaders, not a representative sample.
Contact and more information
For more information, interview requests or a copy of the report, please contact Eduardo Suárez at [email protected] or Matthew Leake at [email protected].
About the author
Nic Newman is Senior Research Associate at the Reuters Institute and lead author of the Digital News Report and an annual study looking at trends in technology and journalism. He is also a consultant on digital media, working actively with news companies on product, audience, and business strategies for digital transition.
About the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism
The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism is dedicated to exploring the future of journalism worldwide. The Institute receives core funding from the Thomson Reuters Foundation and is based in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford. It was launched in November 2006 and developed from the Reuters Journalist Fellowship Programme, established at Oxford 37 years ago. In addition to the fellowship programme for mid-career journalists from around the world, the Institute hosts leadership development programmes and research projects focused on the future of journalism. See https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/
Funding acknowledgement
This piece of research was supported by Google as part of its Global News Initiative.
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