Economists believe that inflation and deficits will be higher under a potential administration of former President Trump, according to a new survey.
The new Wall Street Journal survey of economists found 68 percent of the 50 respondents said prices would rise faster under Trump than Vice President Harris, which is up from the 56 percent who said the same in July. The survey found that just 12 percent said prices would rise faster under Harris, while the rest of them said there would be no difference.
Trump has floated that if he is elected to the White House, he would impose 20 percent tariffs on imported goods. However, many experts and economists said that imposing high tariffs would likely only hurt the American consumers.
The Wall Street Journal survey asked respondents “how Trump’s proposed broad-based tariffs would affect domestic manufacturing employment within three to five years, relative to a scenario with no such policy.” Out of the 44 respondents who answered the question, 59 percent said employment would be lower and just 16 percent said it would be higher, according to The Journal.
The survey also found that 65 percent of respondents believe Trump’s policies would put more “upward pressure” on the federal deficit. About 61 percent said that there would be higher interest rates under Trump than Harris, according to The Journal.
The survey included responses from 66 professional forecasters from business, Wall Street and academia, according to the newspaper.
Trump has offered a series of tax breaks over the last several months to appeal to specific groups he’s courting in the election: tipped and hourly workers, Social Security recipients, and now car buyers who have experienced sticker shock as well as Americans who live and vote abroad. In a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump is betting that his targeted no-tax pledges will appeal to enough voters in key battlegrounds.
But so far, the Republican nominee has been vague about how those tax breaks would work or how he would pay for them — other than promising that his plans to impose sweeping tariffs would bring in new government revenue.
Economic analyses of his earlier tax cut ideas estimated they would cost between nearly $6 trillion and $10 trillion over 10 years, depending on which proposals become policy and how they’re implemented. And mainstream economists warn that Trump’s tariff plans — and the expected retaliation from targeted countries — would raise prices for Americans, slash more than a percentage point off the U.S. economy by 2026 and make inflation 2 percentage points higher next year than it otherwise would have been.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com.
