A drive along the Israel-Lebanese border on February 3 felt peaceful. It was if there had been no war for the last year and a half. Gone were the army checkpoints that used to dot the roads in the north.
The navigation apps on my phone also seemed to work, a contrast to the days when the GPS was not working in much of northern Israel. There were even signs for a pizza place that seemed new.
Has peace returned to the north. In some ways it has. Things seem peaceful. Areas that were a war zone since October 2023 seem to be quiet now. In fact it almost seems too peaceful in the north. After such an intense war against Hezbollah in September and October 2024, it is a surprise to see it this way.
Before the escalation against Hezbollah we were led to believe that there would be thousands of Hebzollah rockets a day landing on Israel. People had almost come to believe the Hezbollah bogeyman could not be beaten. However, years of planning and preparation paid off when Israel chose to take the gloves off against the Iranian-backed terror group.
Hezbollah had taken over southern Lebanon over the last decades and turned southern Lebanon into an armed camp. Hezbollah hid in civilian areas and set up rocket positions. It brought in masses of rockets and mortars, some of the rockets were even put on multiple-rocket launchers on vehicles. Hezbollah drew up plans to attack and invade Israel.
However, the group was asked to play second fiddle to the Hamas attack on October 7. Iran prodded Hezbollah to open a front against Israel to try to attrition Israel. The goal was to keep Israel focused on the north so it would be harder to defeat Hamas. This was the Iranian unity of the arenas strategy, or multi-front war.
Hezbollah was the key piece of Iranian real estate in the region. However, after suffering more than 7,500 rocket attacks, Israel changed tactics in September 2024 and took the war to Hezbollah. Hezbollah leaders and commanders were eliminated.
When the IDF did go into Lebanon on the ground after two weeks of more intense airstrikes in September, the IDF moved slowly into some border villages. It expanded the operation slowly. This was a major difference to Israel’s Operation Peace of Galilee in 1982 or the Litani operation in 1978.
In those days the IDF moved more quickly to seize areas up to the Litani river. In the 2024 war on Hezbollah, called Northern Arrows, the IDF did not move as quickly. Instead it moved slowly and systematically as it had in Gaza.
IDF meant to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Today the IDF is still in some areas of southern Lebanon. However it is supposed to withdraw by February 18. Hezbollah is prodding civilians in southern Lebanon to return to their homes and create tensions with the IDF. The Lebanese army is supposed to deploy at the border but it has a historic track record of failing to carry out its mission.
This leaves questions. Is the quiet on the border an illusion. Has Israel defeated Hezbollah? Has Hezbollah been deterred. Iran has been cut off because of the fall of the Assad regime. Will this mean Hezbollah cannot re-arm and return to threaten Israel in the same war. Is Hezbollah weaker than it was in 2006?
There are many key questions that we do not know the answer to. What is clear is that Israelis will need to return to their homes on the border. Will Hezbollah soon be raising their flags again in places near the border? If so will it seem that everything has merely returned to the status quo. What are the chances that the war in 2024 on Hezbollah was a gamechanger.
Time will tell. For now what impacted me is the sense of quiet and feeling that the border of northern Israel is safe again. However, if Hezbollah flags appear again on the other side of the border, this sense of security will likely change.
