As the move-in day for the Trump administration quickly approaches, it has become clear that the GOP’s top priority will be carrying out their promised mass deportation operation, which they predict will be the largest in American history. As the incoming administration builds its plan, studies have shown that legislation of this nature could be destructive to the U.S. economy, but Republicans insist on saying otherwise.
Independent forecasts have continuously projected that Trump’s mass deportation plans would pose a threat to the economy. For instance, in a comprehensive model of his proposals, a team of economists from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the maximum case— deporting 8.3 million immigrants— would push prices 9.1 percent higher overall by 2028. Even deporting only 1.3 million immigrants would raise prices by 1.5 percent.
Likewise, in a model by economists at the Brookings Institution, looking at a scenario of about 3.4 million deportations and restrictions on legal immigration, found that economic growth would be 0.4 percentage points lower in 2025 alone.
But despite the signs and warnings from scholars, the GOP seems to be moving forward unfazed
That is the case for a new faction within the Republican party, most closely aligned with Vice President-elect JD Vance. This group argues for the case of mass deportations on the base of the economy, an atypical argument given that Trump and his allies usually point to crimes committed by migrants. For Vance, cutting off the supply of vulnerable foreigners will force employers to seek out U.S.-born workers.
“We cannot have an entire American business community that is giving up on American workers and then importing millions of illegal laborers,” Vance said in an interview with The New York Times in October, adding, “it’s one of the biggest reasons why we have millions of people who’ve dropped out of the labor force.”
While it is true that the share of young men in the labor force has been decreasing in recent decades, and immigrants have become the go-to option to fill vacant positions in certain sectors, the effects of migrant labor are more nuanced.
A Harvard economist, George Borjas, has long argued that large waves of immigration have hurt workers without a college degree. His conclusions have been widely disputed by his colleagues, but Trump’s team have cited his work to defend restrictive policies in his first term.
A recent synthesis of studies found that immigration had only a very slight negative impact on the wages of less-educated native-born workers. A comprehensive overview by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine found modest negative effects only for some earlier immigrants and for teenagers. Another paper published this spring by economists at the University of California, Davis, found that immigration had a positive impact on U.S. workers.
This can be due to the fact that immigrants don’t just add labor to an economy, they also add demand for goods and services, which creates more jobs to people. At the same time, those coming illegally tend to have low levels of education, getting employed in often hard-to-fill positions like in meatpacking plants, farms and construction.
Furthermore, a closer look at the men who have dropped out of the workforce in recent decades provides another possible explanation to this trend.
Among working-age men without a college degree who are not working, a majority cite poor health or a disability as the reason, and some cite mental health issues. Some of these reasonings stem from substance abuse, injuries sustained from physical jobs and chronic conditions, according to The New York Times.
“There are huge issues with their employability,” said Dr. Richard V. Reeves, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men said, adding that he doesn’t think removing millions of immigrants from the labor force will automatically draw back native born individuals. “It’s not like, by getting rid of the other guys, suddenly employers will say, ‘Oh great, here’s this reserve army of labor sitting there, raring to go.'”
