Though Israel did not attack Iran’s nuclear program on October 26, it is more likely than ever before that it will do so in the future, a senior defense source said on Thursday.
The source outlined that “this is the first time in many years that two conditions are present” regarding attacking Iran’s nuclear program, namely that such an attack “is necessary…and is possible.”
Next, the defense official said that “the entire defense establishment is in consensus about this,” unlike the 2009 period when much of the defense establishment opposed suggestions by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Tehran’s nuclear program.
According to the official, this means that the defense establishment is working on practical issues for preparing for such an attack more than ever.
Pressed that the government’s failure to attack Iran’s nuclear program on October 26 was a last golden missed opportunity to do so, the senior defense official pushed back.
Rather, the official said that the golden opportunity remains and will remain for some time to come because Iran’s best air defense systems were destroyed and because its “shield” of proxies, like Hezbollah and Hamas, have been largely defanged in relative terms.
The most important matter for Israel to address in order to attack Iran going forward is to continue to improve its capabilities, said the defense source.
Further, the official said, “The US is a major factor.”
A likely move?
On November 11, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the diplomatic, operational, and tactical situation for attacking Iran’s nuclear program has never been as doable, realistic, and likely as it is now.
Katz noted how two previous Israeli strikes on Iran this year – which were actually counter attacks following massive attacks by Tehran on the Jewish state on April 13-14 and October 1 – have made it clear how superior the Israeli air force is to even the most advanced aspects of the Islamic Republic’s air defense systems.
“There is an opportunity to achieve the most important goal – to thwart and remove the threat of destruction hanging over the State of Israel…Today, there is a broad national and defense establishment consensus that we need to thwart the Iranian nuclear program, and there is an understanding that this is doable – not only on the security front, but also on the diplomatic front,” said Katz.
Despite Katz’s statement, many officials, including former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, had called for the air force to strike Iran’s nuclear program on October 26.
Instead, the Air Force was ordered by the government to strike about 20 ballistic missile production and air defense sites in Iran.In addition, prior to the election and to October 26, incoming president-elect Donald Trump explicitly suggested to the Israeli government that it respond to Iran’s October 1 attack by attacking Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
While Trump could reverse himself in theory once he is president, all the signs he has given, even post-election, have thrilled the Netanyahu government as taking a hard line against Iran.
Moreover, the defense source said that Israel is working hard behind the scenes to get countries around the world to support a global sanctions snapback before the mechanism expires around October 2025.
The snapback is a mechanism that is part of the 2015 nuclear deal which allows the parties to the deal, with no Russia or China veto option, to declare Iran in violation which automatically causes full global sanctions to go back into effect as before 2015.
The source added that this could significantly contribute to moving Iran in a better direction on the nuclear issue.
However, at the same time, the source said that attacking Iran’s nuclear program was even better because rather than blocking or slowing the program, this could destroy or end it.
Critics have said that Israel may lack the ability to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program because aspects are built under a mountain, that even success would only delay Iran by a year or two as it could rebuild anything attacked, and that an attack might even motivate Iran more to break out to a nuclear weapon.
