Joel Klatt CFP preview | FOX Sports

As the College Football Playoff inches closer and closer, I have a bold statement to make: I think this is as good as a playoff field as we’ve ever had in the sport.

I legitimately believe any one of the four teams in this year’s CFP – Michigan, Alabama, Texas and Washington – can win the national championship. And I can say with confidence that I don’t believe there has been a playoff before when that was the case.

One of my favorite things about this playoff field is the experience at the quarterback position. I know Jalen Milroe hasn’t played a ton at Alabama, but he’s been there in the program and waited for his shot. You’ve got four guys who have been in their program and on the field for a long time. That makes this year’s CFP intriguing because, in these top games, it comes down to quarterback play.

With that said, here are my answers to some burning questions heading into this year’s College Football Playoff.

Rose Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines

Will this be a high-scoring game or a defensive battle?

I believe you’ve got what could arguably be the best semifinal matchup in College Football Playoff history with this game. This is going to be so good.

Both of these teams play a style of football that limits possessions. The over/under in this game is 44.5 and Michigan is still favored by 1.5, which I find interesting. I thought that line would move a little more toward Alabama. We all expect this game to be a little bit more low-scoring than the nightcap between Washington and Texas.

What do you make of the coaching matchup: Jim Harbaugh vs. Nick Saban?

When you look at what Jim Harbaugh has done during his time at Michigan, you have to break it up into two categories: There is pre-COVID Harbaugh and post-COVID Harbaugh. But what has stayed consistent throughout his time at Michigan is that everything this guy does is a headline. Everything he does is talked about and scrutinized.

This year, Harbaugh has only been on the field for seven of the team’s 13 games because of suspensions. Now, all of a sudden, as the game approaches, we have more headlines. Reports have surfaced that Harbaugh has a $125 million extension for 10 years at Michigan on the table. What I find interesting is that it was reported through NFL sources. So now, that’s looming over this game.

It doesn’t matter if it’s a sign-stealing saga, or his contract situation, Harbaugh is always the story. And guess what? There is no part of Harbaugh that wants to be the story. He despises it. He views himself as an old school ball coach, and in a lot of ways, that’s what he is and that’s what he’s built at Michigan.

On the other side, you have Nick Saban, who I believe is the greatest college football coach in the history of our sport. He has built something that I don’t believe can ever be replicated again. He is 9-4 in the playoff in his career. Ever since he won that first national championship game over Texas, he has been a juggernaut. This team just constantly churns out 11, 12, 13-win seasons and national championships.

Now, he has led his team to the College Football Playoff in a year that is maybe his most unique season that we’ve seen. He didn’t know who his QB was going to be heading into this season. It was a disaster early on. He made the decision to move forward with Milroe, and now, here they are, in the CFP, and in a lot of ways, playing their best football of the season.

Rose Bowl Preview: Will Alabama and Nick Saban topple Michigan and Jim Harbaugh?

Has the vibe surrounding these two teams shifted since their respective conference championship games?

All year, it felt like Michigan was the better of these two teams. But now, here we are at the end of the year, and the last SEC game we saw was Alabama beating Georgia, ending the two-time defending champions’ 29-game winning streak. And for Michigan, the last time we saw the Wolverines was in a win over an underwhelming Iowa team in unimpressive fashion.

Alabama has now found its identity. This is a team that had to develop into what they are this year. This team’s offensive line has gotten much better. They do a better job at protecting the passer.

Meanwhile, this Michigan team has been totally dominant, but when Zak Zinter went down with that season-ending injury against Ohio State, and they were without him in the Big Ten Championship Game, they didn’t run well against Iowa.

So, if Michigan can’t run the ball, can they go out and beat Alabama?

Michigan is a team that is as sound, deep, and consistent as any team in the country. The Wolverines have quality QB play, they run the ball consistently, and the defense is as good as they’ve had in a while, across all levels. This is also the best special teams group in the country. This is the best version of Michigan Football that Harbaugh has had.

Alabama is going to have to do a great job against that Michigan run game because the Michigan run game is the first domino in the recipe to success for the Wolverines. Alabama was outstanding against Georgia’s run game, only giving up 78 rushing yards. However, Texas owned Alabama at the line of scrimmage back in Week 2. In the Iron Bowl, Auburn rushed for 244 yards against the Tide. So, which Bama defense shows up? After a month off, you’d expect Saban to have this unit ready.

If Michigan can’t run the football, it could be difficult for the Wolverines because they aren’t great against pass protection. We saw that against Iowa, and we saw that in spots against Penn State. They have to block Dallas Turner. That’s no easy task. Without Zinter, Michigan’s O-line is going to have to play a lot better than they did against Iowa.

What happens when Alabama’s offense is on the field?

It starts and stops with Michigan’s defensive line and that unit’s ability to keep Milroe in the pocket. If the Wolverines can force Milroe to play this game from the pocket against those quality cover players, now they’ve got something. They can create an interception or two. What you don’t want Milroe to do, if you’re Michigan, is what he did against LSU. In that game, he was running and creating, which caused so many problems for the LSU defense. That’s where the game really lies. That front four of Michigan has got to keep Milroe hemmed up.

Can Michigan handle Alabama if the Crimson Tide are playing well?

This is where I start to have some concerns about Michigan, and the main reason is the offensive line. I don’t know if Michigan’s offensive line can handle the front seven for Alabama. If the Wolverines can’t run the ball, then they are going to be exposed by Alabama’s pass rushers.

This is a game in which J.J. McCarthy is going to have to play his best game of the season. He is going to have to be a total difference maker for Michigan, whether it’s him using his legs in the run game or getting outside of the pocket and creating. Colston Loveland is going to have to be a dynamic threat for Michigan. Roman Wilson is going to have to create space. The Wolverines’ backs are going to have to play well. They are going to have to make up for some inefficiencies on the offensive line with Zinter out.

Who will win the game and why?

The fact that Zinter isn’t playing in this game is a huge deal. Michigan played so poorly without him in the run game against Iowa. I fully expect this to be a good version of Alabama. When Nick Saban has this amount of time to prepare, you expect Alabama to play well and have a plan in every area. Because of that, I’m going to go with Alabama. I expect the Crimson Tide to win a close game.

Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 2 Washington Huskies

Will this be a high-scoring game or a defensive battle?

This is going to be a much different game than Michigan vs. Alabama. This is going to be a higher scoring game. The over/under is 63.5. Texas is favored by four points. I think Texas is better in a lot of areas, but here’s the problem: Washington has the No. 1 passing offense in the country. This is a dynamic passing offense. This is not born out of play-action or tricks. This is a straight, drop back, win with space, win with leverage, with great players on the outside.

Where does Washington have an edge over Texas?

Washington has the No. 1-ranked passing offense in the country, and they are facing the biggest weakness that Texas has – it’s secondary. So, now that Texas secondary is going to have to face Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. Those three have combined for 175 catches for 2,896 yards and 24 touchdowns. Someone is going to be open, and Washington is going to score points. Even with T’Vondre Sweat and that fantastic run defense that Texas has, I just don’t see a scenario in which Washington doesn’t score a lot of points.

Sugar Bowl Preview: Will Washington’s passing game doom Texas?

What are you most excited about when it comes to Texas’ offense?

I’m excited to watch Steve Sarkisian with a month of preparation time with that offense. When this guy gets in a rhythm, it’s like nothing else. When this guy wants to put the pedal down, it’s special. He has built something at Texas that, let’s be honest, a lot of people thought might not happen again. Sarkisian is in a position where he can build a game plan and really attack Washington’s weakness, which is its defense. There’s no reason why Texas can’t also score in the low or mid-30s in this game.

What do you expect to see from Texas’ running backs?

Obviously, Jonathon Brooks’ injury hurts Texas. Now, CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue have picked up the slack since Brooks went down with that season-ending knee injury. Texas has totaled 500 yards on the ground over the past two games. But what Brooks gave them was the ability to be dynamic in the passing game. It’s not that the other running backs on this team can’t do that. But we just haven’t seen it to the extent that we did with Brooks.

Can Texas get to Michael Penix?

I kind of have my doubts about this. Texas’ best quality on defense is its ability to stop the run. If you take Washington’s ability to run away, then the Huskies will just throw it 50 times, and they can do that well. This is not a team that exposes Penix to a lot of hits. They are one of the best pass-protection teams in the country. Texas’ ability to present some pressure on Penix and disrupt that passing game at all is paramount. If Penix stands back in the pocket, with those three wide receivers, against that secondary, Washington is going to win the game. 

Who will win the game and why?

I know Texas is favored by four, but I just don’t believe Texas is going to present the pressure necessary to slow down Washington’s offense. There is nothing in me that believes that Washington will be stopped trying to throw the football. This passing game is as good as I’ve seen in a long time. I think Penix and Washington are going to beat Texas.

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him on Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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