Out of the 12 assembly elections held in J&K, half were held in the September-October or November-December window. In fact, since 1996, all J&K assembly polls have been held in September-early December window, before snow blocks access to the upper reaches.
The Centre is learnt to have considered a poll alongside Lok Sabha polls in March-April 2024. However, the 2019 experience did not favour such a proposal, with the Centre citing hurdles in arranging adequate forces for deployment in J&K.
Accordingly, EC appointed a team of three observers in 2019 to suggest the right time for J&K polls. This team opined that the assembly polls should be held in the state immediately after the Lok Sabha polls, as security deployment would not be a problem.
The Union home ministry and the state administration still proposed a September-October or a November election. They cited as reasons the tourist season, holy month of Ramzan and Amarnath Yatra that begins around July 1 and requires separate security arrangements from mid-June.
There are other electoral concerns as well. The Gujjar-Bakarwal tribes migrate in the summer and return to their base in the winters. They will be a crucial constituency, with nine assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in J&K for the first time. These factors are likely to be applicable even in 2024.Such a scenario may mean elections in J&K along with Haryana and Maharashtra polls in September and October of 2024.Another important factor in J&K elections is the availability of security forces.
The tense 2009 polls in J&K saw deployment of 600 companies of paramilitary forces. In 2014, elections were held in five phases in the state with the help of 400 companies.
For 2019 Lok Sabha polls, over 500 companies of the central armed police force were deployed in J&K. However, holding assembly elections with general elections meant deployment of over 800 companies in J&K alone, a prospect ruled out then by the Centre.
In the absence of ‘adequate’ security forces, assembly elections were not announced by the EC even as Lok Sabha polls were held. This ‘adequate’ number will, in all likelihood, be even bigger and more challenging in 2024.
In 2014, 42% polling stations were categorised as ‘critical’. In 2019, over 80% polling stations were ‘hyper-sensitive’.
