When North Korea detonated a nuclear weapon in October of 2006, the world reacted with shock. In retrospect, it’s hard to understand why. They had been pursuing nuclear weapons for at least two decades. Over that time, multiple U.S. administrations and allies tried convincing Pyongyang to abandon its goals with a variety of economic incentives. Ultimately, they only succeeded in deluding themselves into thinking they were making progress.
If all of this sounds familiar, it’s because history is repeating itself with Iran. The similarities go beyond gullible American leaders desperate to believe in the good intentions of hostile despots.
Both countries’ weapons programs grew out of ostensibly peaceful nuclear projects that they were allowed to maintain. Both agreed to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and inspections — which they both repeatedly failed to comply with. In September of 2005, North Korea agreed to reimplement the agency’s protocols and halt its weapons programs. This bought them the American, South Korean and Japanese complacency they needed for their final sprint to becoming a nuclear power. Iran’s president is currently attempting to do the same.
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran’s breakout time is now only one or two weeks. Completely missing in the months since this announcement is any sort of action, or even assertion of what the United States is willing to do to prevent that from happening. It is as if, having failed to revive the 2015 nuclear deal early in Joe Biden’s presidency, Blinken and the rest of the administration are content to play the role of sideline commentators.
With just under three months until the end of the Biden administration, his national security team is likely hoping to pass the issue along, like a hot potato, leaving the consequences to their successors. Decisive action is not something for which this administration has built a reputation. It is, however, what the moment requires. And there has never been a better opportunity.
Thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul served as a significant deterrent to military action against North Korea’s nuclear program. Similarly, Hezbollah’s arsenal of over a hundred thousand missiles and rockets presented an enormous risk that destroying Iran’s nuclear program would result in Hezbollah destroying large parts of Israel.
That is no longer the case. Israel is systematically dismantling Hezbollah and appears unlikely to stop. Jerusalem has also opened the door to a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by destroying part of the Iranian air defense network and demonstrating the ability to operate at will over their airspace.
Perhaps even more importantly, Tehran has repeatedly signaled that they prioritize regime survival over all else. Despite the decades and wealth that they’ve invested in Hezbollah, they do not appear particularly eager to sacrifice themselves to save it.
The Islamic Republic has not been this exposed in years. The regime is on its back foot and realizes that it has started a conflict in which it is hopelessly outmatched. Now is the time to press the advantage. The U.S. must destroy Iran’s nuclear potential, before that potential is realized.
It is impossible to be certain how Tehran will respond to an attack. But their reactions to Israel’s onslaught against Hezbollah, assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and targeting of multiple Iranian generals suggests it will be muted. If it is made clear that the U.S. does not seek to destroy the regime, the Iranians may settle for another face-saving but minimally destructive retaliatory attack. If Tehran escalates beyond that, however, it should be made clear that the U.S. will begin targeting the assets most critical to the regime’s survival — the internal security forces and morality police they rely on to oppress the Iranian people.
Perhaps the strangest aspect of American presidents’ belief that dictators determined to obtain nuclear weapons are negotiating in good faith is that it persists. Even after developing nuclear weapons, Pyongyang continued to play successive administrations for years, promising to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and aid packages. Its stockpile only expanded. There is a lesson here — our enemies cannot be trusted when it comes to nuclear weapons.
Thankfully, history also offers another relevant lesson: Israel’s destruction of the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs in 1981 and 2007, respectively. To date, neither country has obtained nuclear weapons.
Every U.S. president from George W. Bush to Biden has repeatedly reiterated a commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It is clear what works and what does not.
And we may be watching our last opportunity slip through our hands. This makes Biden’s opposition to Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities particularly disappointing. If he is unwilling to act to fulfill America’s commitment, he should at least encourage Israel to do the job for us.
Dan Nidess is a former Marine captain and veteran of the war in Iraq who currently works in Silicon Valley.
