If the number of candidate-branded plastic cups sold at the Monogram Shop in East Hampton is an accurate predictor of the election results this fall, in a Biden-versus-Trump November race, President Biden gets clobbered.
Every presidential election cycle since 2004, the small shop on Newtown Lane has sold monogrammed plastic cups with each of the candidates’ names on them, keeping count of sales and posting the daily tally. With the exception of the Clinton-Trump showdown it’s always been a perfect indicator of the outcome of the race (including Bush-Kerry).
“It fell apart in 2016 with everyone else,” says Valerie Smith, the shop’s owner.
In January of this year, Smith decided to do away with the cup count. “It’s such a toxic environment,” she says. “This could lead to something unpleasant.”
Instead, she took a neutral, quiet approach to political messaging and printed “Let Us Pray 2024” on plastic cups that, she says, spoke to everyone. And they sold “briskly.”
But those who frequented the shop wanted the temperature-taking candidate cups back, and told Smith as much. Early last month, she caved and made Biden-Harris 2024 and Trump 2024 cups. The sales results surprised her, but not nearly as much as who was buying them.
“From the moment we started, the sales were three to one [for Trump],” Smith says.
“What has been fascinating, with maybe four exceptions, [is that] every single one of these cups has been bought by a woman. And what does the polling every time tell us? That Trump is in trouble with suburban women. Well, let me tell you—they’re walking in here all day long.”
As of June 30, approximately three weeks into selling them, 689 Trump cups and 376 Biden cups had been sold (and some 100 of those Biden cups, Smith notes, were bought in bulk ahead of the star-studded post-debate local Biden fundraiser last Saturday at Barry and Lizanne Rosenstein’s oceanfront house on Further Lane). Also billed on the invite were Hamptonites like Sarah Jessica Parker, Matthew Broderick, and Michael J. Fox.
Now, with many calling for Biden to leave the race following his performance in the first presidential debate, the great cup indicator has been completely thrown for a loop. So have many Democrats, who, along with their checkbooks, spend their summers in the Hamptons.
Like Palm Beach in the winter and New York City in the spring, the Hamptons is on the donor circuit, and most politicians roll through between the end of June and mid-August, hat in hand, tapping the same wealthy donors in each place.
The debate last week gave many of them pause.
At parties over lobster salad and rosé, and on Main Beach in East Hampton over live music Tuesday, while gleeful local Trump supporters were texting “Bi-Done” to anyone and everyone, conversations among shell-shocked Democrats feeling stuck in purgatory swayed between “Biden should step aside” and “let him run” to “I’m not sure what he should do.”
But behind closed doors, where the real money is pumped into the campaigns, one prominent fundraiser who asked not to be named says the mood is one of “genuine concern.”
Demonstrators hold signs outside of a fundraiser for US President Joe Biden in East Hampton, New York, US, on Saturday, June 29, 2024.By Amanda L. Gordon/Bloomberg via Getty Images.
