IMD shares monsoon update, warns of cyclonic circulation over Kerala and Andhra Pradesh

The India Meteorological Department has said that conditions are favorable for the further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon over various regions in the next two days. These areas include parts of the Southeast Arabian Sea, additional sections of the Maldives, the Comorin area, the South Bay of Bengal, and more areas of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea. Earlier the IMD had forecast monsoon to hit Kerala coast around month-end. Andaman & Nicobar Islands are likely to receive widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next seven days, with isolated heavy rainfall expected from May 21st to 25th, including very heavy falls on Andaman Islands today.

Cyclonic circulation over Kerala and Andhra Pradesh

Currently, a cyclonic circulation is present over northern Kerala at lower and middle tropospheric levels, and another one is over the northern coastal Andhra Pradesh region at lower tropospheric levels, according to IMD. Under the influence of these circulations Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka are expected to experience widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over the next five days, according to IMD.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, and Rayalaseema are also expected to see isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with similar conditions. Isolated heavy rainfall is predicted for coastal and south interior Karnataka from May 21st to 23rd, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on May 24th, and Kerala on May 25th, 2024.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal from May 21st to 23rd, Kerala & Mahe on May 21st and 24th, and South Interior Karnataka on May 21st. Additionally, Kerala may experience isolated extremely heavy rainfall on May 22nd and 23rd, 2024.

Depression forming over Bay of Bengal

A low-pressure area is expected to form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22nd. This development is due to a cyclonic circulation over the region, extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level. This low-pressure area is likely to move northeastward and intensify into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 24th, 2024, continuing to intensify thereafter. Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall with heavy rainfall at isolated places is likely over North & South 24 Parganas, east Medinipur districts of West Bengal, and Balasore district of Odisha on May 25th. Mizoram, Tripura, and South Manipur can expect similar conditions on the same day. Fishermen are advised to avoid the central and adjoining southern Bay of Bengal from May 23rd and the North Bay of Bengal from May 24th onwards. Those already at sea should return to the coast by May 23rd.