The race for the National League’s third and final wild-card spot couldn’t much closer with only one game separating the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves with 16 games to go.
For now, we’ll omit the Chicago Cubs from our discussion of which team will earn the NL’s No. 6 seed because — despite winning 13 of their last 19 — they are still five games behind.
The Mets have received plenty of plaudits for making this race all the more compelling. After all, they had a disastrous start through the first few months with a 22-33 record.
But since May 30, they have the best record in the majors at 58-33 (.637).
Can the Mets continue this climb in their quest for October baseball? Let’s take a look.
Odds to win No. 6 seed in NL playoffs
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Braves (79-67) | +190 |
| Mets (80-66) | +220 |
| Diamondbacks (82-64) | +360 |
| Padres (82-65) | +370 |
| Cubs (75-71) | 40/1 |
| Cardinals (73-72) | 100/1 |
Mets: Schedule challenge lies ahead
After back-to-back series against sub-.500 teams, things now get more challenging for the Mets as they head to Philadelphia for three games to wrap up the road trip. They then return home for a three-game set against the Nationals followed by four more games against the Phillies.
The Mets close out the regular season with away games against Atlanta and Milwaukee. The Brewers could have the NL Central — and the top wild-card spot — wrapped up by then, and thus nothing to play for.
What’s most impressive about this Mets’ run is that they’ve done it without Kodai Senga, who’s pitched in only one game this year due to a spell of injuries.
The team is hoping to get its ace back before the end of the regular season; Senga is eligible to come off IR on Sept. 25 — in the middle of the Braves series.
Braves: Injuries taking a toll
The Braves would probably be near or at the top of the list for the unluckiest team this season.
All-Star reliever Reynaldo López was placed on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, less than 24 hours from departing a 12-0 win over the Nationals with shoulder inflammation.
López (8-5) has the best ERA (2.08) among Atlanta’s starters.
The Braves were already without Spencer Strider, a 20-game winner, and the 2023 NL MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are currently on the injury list and have already missed at least two months of action, along with center field Michael Harris II and catcher Sean Murphy.
The good news for the Braves is they’ll face their toughest remaining opponents (Dodgers, Mets and Royals) at home, sandwiched by a six-game road trip to Cincinnati and Miami.
NL wild-card best bet
While it’ll be quite a feat if the Braves can overcome all of their injuries and still reach the postseason, there’s better value in them missing out altogether.
At FanDuel, they are -135 on the YES to make the playoffs, resulting in an implied probability of 57.5 percent.
While Atlanta can claim one of the three wild-card spots, it already trails the Diamondbacks and Padres by three and 2 1/2 games, respectively. Thus, Atlanta’s best chance would be to beat out the Mets.
The Mets’ yes/no option sits at -165/+125, and their odds of finishing with the the sixth seed are +220.
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They currently have the most demanding remaining schedule, per Tankathon, as their opponents have a combined .551 winning percentage.
As a result, they’ll also face a stiff challenge in trying to catch the Diamondbacks or Padres.
Nonetheless, they are riding high on momentum, which could be enough to finish in front of Atlanta. From a value standpoint, they deserve strong consideration to claim the final wild-card spot.
Best bet: Mets to finish as NL’s sixth seed (+220, FanDuel)
