The late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is being mourned by officials in Iran, with his untimely demise in a helicopter accident coming at a complex time for Iran. In recent years, Iran has been marching across the Middle East. It exploited the vacuum left in Iraq and Syria after the war on ISIS to achieve a large amount of influence on the ground and has also increased the strength of its proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
There is another side to the Raisi legacy that is worth examining. During his era, Iran pursued a policy of outreach to the Arab states. For instance, Iran’s reconciliation with Saudi Arabia took place last year with China’s backing. It came after Iran and China had agreed to a multi-decade deal that was supposed to increase economic and other ties. The Iran-Saudi deal was likely a win-win for China and Iran. It helped China increase its influence in the region. But what else did Iran want? Iran wanted to prevent Saudi normalization with Israel.
Iran didn’t just to outreach to Riyadh. It also did outreach to the Arab League and helped get Gulf states to bring the Syrian regime back to the Arab League. Iran controls a swath of Syria, so in essence it was bringing its own proxy into the Arab League after a decade when the Syrian regime had the cold shoulder due to the Syrian civil war.
Iran has been seeking to change the region irreversibly in recent years. This is a big change that has taken place due to the chaos that began in the region in the last decades. One can trace that chaos to the end of the Cold War, the rise of Al Qaeda and extremism, the US global war on terror, and then the US invasion of Iraq. However, this chaos was put on steroids by the Arab Spring. Iran has been on the march throughout all of this. The Gulf War that Saddam caused by invading Kuwait helped Iran. The rise of ISIS helped Iran.
This has had the result of bringing Iranian-backed groups to the borders of Israel. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad now all threaten Israel. This can be seen this week as Israel has had to conduct raids into the West Bank to fight terrorists and is fighting in Gaza and on the northern border. Drone threats this week also show how Iran is using drones flown by its allies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq to threaten Israel.
The big story is that Iran also likely was able to use all this influence in the Arab world to pave the way to October 7. What were the key elements of October 7? First, Iran had to increase the power of Hamas. It likely did this through technological advice and perhaps through smuggling via Egypt. It’s not clear how that smuggling took place, but it is clear that Hamas is hosted by Qatar, and Iran has good ties with Qatar. Iran also did outreach to Egypt. It’s possible that smuggling took place via Egypt with some kind of Iranian blessing that included backroom deals that Iran achieved through its increased role in the Arab states.
Setting the stage for October 7 and regional conflict
Another way Iranian outreach to the Arab states set the stage for October 7 was through Iran’s ability to get Israel to focus on the campaign between the wars in Syria. Also, the Iranian movement of precision munitions and drones to Hezbollah forced Israel to concentrate on the north. Furthermore, Iran inflamed the northern West Bank in 2022-2023, meaning Israel had to move units there. This may have reduced focus and forces on the Gaza border.
Iran’s outreach to the Arab world also lowered tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen. That meant the Houthis could be used as part of the war on Israel. In addition, the reconciliation between Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia likely helped Iran. Iran wanted to derail the Abraham Accords. Once the Saudis and other countries were less hostile to Qatar and Iran, then Iran could lure them over to its side. It is worth noting that China and Russia did not condemn October 7. Through drone sales to Russia, Iran was able to buy Russian silence on October 7, and likely Russia lined up behind Hamas because of the rivalry with the US and the Ukraine war. Israel had done outreach to China over the years, but once Iran was closer to China, Beijing became more hostile to Israel. This also was part of the changes in the region that led to October 7.
With all these pieces in place, Iran may have gained from other winds of change. For instance, with reconciliation in the Gulf, it’s possible that the intelligence services of the Arab states were less inclined to be alert to Hamas activity because they were less focused on Iran’s destabilizing activities. This meant that the word could be fed to Israel that Hamas was “deterred.” Who fed Israel this story is not clear. Was it cooked up in Tehran or by Hamas or others? What is clear is that Israel was lured into a false sense of security, and Iran laid a trap. It laid that trap through its increased role in the Gulf and the Arab world. With less focus by the Arab states on Hamas and Iran, the terrorists were able to move forward with their October 7 plans. The plans had existed for years, but now they have gotten the green light.
Iran wanted to use October 7 to derail Saudi-Israel normalization and the Abraham Accords. It also wanted to isolate Israel. As such, it has exploited October 7 to change the regional order. It sees this as a watershed turning point. This happened under Raisi and Iran’s foreign minister, who also died in the helicopter crash, played a key role in the outreach to the Arab and Muslim world. It’s worth considering that outreach to Egypt may have also played a role in advancing the plans of October 7. Not all will be known for many years, but Raisi played a key role, along with his administration, in laying the groundwork for October 7.
