The Congress is eyeing a comeback in Haryana after 10 years, banking on anti-incumbency against the state’s BJP government and its own relative ascendance since the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.
The BJP, which changed its chief minister from Manohar Lal Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini just months ahead of the assembly elections, is depending a strategy of splintering key vote banks to retain power and relevance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leaders Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi among others have led the intense campaigning, which ends on Thursday (October 3). Here is all you need to know as the northern state goes to polls on October 5, the results of which will be announced on October 8.
What are the key issues?
Beyond community equations, Haryana is seeing most of the poll rhetoric centred around issues of unemployment, farm distress and corruption. National issues are also making some appearances; for instance, when Modi brings up the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi talks about alleged cronyism.
The Congress claims there was rampant bribery in providing government jobs. It also says not enough jobs were created, claiming that Haryana has the “highest levels of unemployment”. It repeatedly brings up the 2020-21 farmers’ protest, listing the central government’s repeal of the three contentious farm laws as an admission of anti-farmer policies.
Campaign rhetoric of the INLD and the JJP is along similar lines, though they stress that the Congress, particularly the Hooda father-son duo, also has no better record.
The BJP has been insisting that its government was the keenest in Haryana when it comes to giving jobs on merit. It also lists central schemes targeted at farmers and distressed sections of society among its achievements and offerings.
Prominent in the saffron party’s rhetoric are attacks on “dynastic politics”, be it Gandhis at the Centre or Hoodas at the state. In its attack on the internal fight in the state Congress unit, it has also deployed senior central leaders to buttress the allegation that Dalit leader Kumari Selja is being sidelined.
What is the party-wise situation in Haryana?
BJP
The BJP was once a junior partner of the INLD in Haryana. Not very different from its partnership with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. It was once part of the state government led by INLD patriarch Om Prakash Chautala.
The BJP decisively broke up with the INLD more than a decade ago. However, observers predicted it will be able to stand on its own in the state, but the Narendra Modi juggernaut became the prime factor as it scripted back-to-back victories in 2014 and 2019 in assembly polls held only months after the general elections.
But, the decline in the graph was apparent as, in 2019, it fell just short of the majority and had to depend on the breakaway party of the Chautala clan – the JJP led by Dushyant Chautala – to stay in power.
It got worse as, in the Lok Sabha polls held just months ago this year, the BJP came down by half from its earlier clean sweep of 10/10 seats. Ominous signs had emerged also when Dushyant, the deputy chief minister, left the ruling alliance. The BJP also then changed tack, and changed the CM.
The party faces anger, particularly from the farming communities — most prominently the Jats – with the 2020-21 farmers’ agitation being a major plot twist. It has, in the past, sought to consolidate the non-Jat votes while the Jat vote would get divided.
More complex social engineering may, thus, be a key to the BJP’s fate this time. Observers also place repeated paroles to Dera Sacha Sauda chief and rape convict Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh in that context.
Congress
The Congress has put all its weight behind long-time warhorse Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was CM for 10 years before the BJP’s decade began in 2014. The party is saddled long-running internal feuds.
Kumari Selja — a prominent Dalit leader, Gandhi family loyalist and former Union minister – has been quite open about her political ambitions. Another Gandhi loyalist, Randeep Singh Surjewala, is another player.
But, if analysis of the ticket distribution is anything to go by, the high command is set in its plans to have Hooda, assisted by his son Deepender, lead the way. Selja has not even been given a ticket despite showing strong interest in moving to state-level politics. Surjewala is, however, contesting this election.
The party is depending on Jat vote consolidation this time after the divide and decline of the Chautala clan. It has fielded wrestler Vinesh Phogat and is harping on the alleged injustices faced by the ‘Haryana ki beti’. When it comes to social engineering, it is also hoping that the Dalit communities choose it over multiple other options being presented to them.
Chautalas and others
There are other players on the field, most prominently the divided Chautala clan that is split between the INLD and JJP.
Dushyant’s JJP, which was new last time but got 10 seats, had taken away a major chunk of the traditional INLD vote, making an emotional pitch that the younger lot had been wronged and thrown out by the older lot, particularly his uncle Abhay Chautala.
Its partnership with the BJP later gave the JJP seat on the power table, but also confused, even frustrated its supporters who saw it as a betrayal of the original mandate. Dushyant has been facing tough questions, particularly from the farming communities, over his equation with the BJP.
Abhay Chautala, who was lone INLD MLA last time and even resigned showing support for the farmers’ protest, sees this as a chance to revive his party. He has partnered with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to build a Jat-Dalit combination. Dushyant is trying the same formula, partnering with the Azad Samaj Party (ASP), led by Uttar Pradesh MP Chandrashekhar.
Both Abhay and Dushyant have been fielding questions about allegedly aiding the BJP with their community vote arithmetic.
