It is unclear whether the plan would involve exports of Azerbaijani gas via Russia, or if the volumes would be “swapped” between the two countries before they were shipped.
Either way, according to Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert with commodities intelligence firm ICIS, any deal would likely allow Moscow to collect at least some revenue and let gas extraction sites continue operating in Russia.
“Ultimately Russia would still gain and right now Gazprom is in a difficult position financially. Production is at an all-time low and they need to sell gas,” Sabadus said. Last month, Moscow’s gas export giant recorded its first annual loss since 1999.
On top of that, Sabadus added, while a total end to gas supplies flowing via Ukraine could raise prices for consumers in Central Europe, “all the affected countries, Slovakia, Hungary and so on, have alternatives.”
Despite efforts to cut its reliance on Russia, a new analysis of ICIS data shows that, for the first time in almost two years, Moscow in May supplied Europe with more piped natural gas and liquified natural gas than the United States.
Azerbaijan steps up
Since Russia launched its war in Ukraine, the EU has been strengthening its energy ties with Azerbaijan.
