The presidential election prediction markets shifted heavily toward Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday night after the release of a shocking poll that showed her leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the vice president leading her GOP rival 47% to 44% among likely voters.
The poll sent Trump’s numbers tumbling while he held onto his overall advantage in most markets.
Kalshi had Trump with a 64-36 advantage on Tuesday. Saturday night, Trump led 51% to Harris’s 49% as of 9:15 p.m. ET – and that didn’t last long.
Kalshi
As of 9:30 ET, Harris and Trump were tied.
Trump’s odds on Polymarket also dropped to 54.9% to Harris’s 45.3% Saturday from a high of 67-33 on Wednesday of this past week.
Polymarket
Meanwhile, PredictIt flipped the advantage to Harris in the hours after the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll drop:
PredictIt
Election Betting Odds also saw Harris with a 4.1% increase on Saturday night, which mirrored an identical 4.1% drop in Trump’s odds earlier in the day:
Election Betting Odds
Forbes explained on Friday how betting on elections works for those curious about placing a wager:
Platforms take wagers for a certain candidate to prevail, with payouts dependent on the market-implied odds on the day of the bet. So if a candidate were to wager $100 on a candidate with 50% odds, they’d collect a roughly $100 profit if that person won, or they’d lose the $100 if their pick lost (not accounting for any fees taken by the betting site).
Odds move for the presidential election markets similarly to other betting markets, like sportsbooks, meaning a key injury update which would swing the betting odds on a game should have a similar effect to a swing-state poll more favorable than prior surveys for a certain candidate.
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