One of the most widely heard refrains in the pundit-industrial complex is that Donald Trump’s New York criminal trial won’t change voters’ hearts and minds. But I think it’s a big mistake. The reality is that none of us know what voters are going to do in 169 days. And while bad headlines might influence the voting public a lot less than they used to, the media still helps set the tone for how the public perceives a candidate.
First, consider a poll. (You already know how I feel about polls; they are imperfect snapshots in time that should be taken with a grain of salt.) But one conducted by ABC/Ipsos in early May showed that a fifth of Trump’s supporters said they would either reconsider their support (16%) or withdraw it (4%) if he’s convicted of a felony in the New York case. Those are some serious, electoral college–moving numbers. Secondly, a lot of people point to the former president’s indictments—which were followed by a surge in primary support for Trump—as evidence that his trial is also a nonfactor, or perhaps even helpful. However, as the Atlantic’s Russel Berman recently wrote, a lot of the surveys that suggest as much could be riddled with bias, while other data suggests that the indictments have had the opposite effect entirely. Third, even if GOP primary voters were emboldened by Trump’s indictments, they are very different cats than the voters he needs to win over in the general election—voters who might be a lot more put off by Trump’s past debauchery.
In fact, let’s pause for a moment and examine said debauchery. There is no historical precedent for Trump’s trial; the closest analogue is when impeachment proceedings were initiated against President Richard Nixon. But Nixon occupied a universe where shame still existed among Republicans, most of whom could essentially be bullied into doing the right thing. Indeed, Nixon stepped down because he was convinced by a trio of GOP lawmakers, including then Senator Barry Goldwater, that his support on the Hill had evaporated. That development couldn’t bear any less resemblance to the scenes of last week, in which the Speaker of the House and several GOP veep hopefuls popped into 100 Centre Street and bent their knees to Trump—by attacking the witnesses and maligning the judge’s daughter. That was just after the twice-impeached ex-president’s former fixer testified about the alleged hush money payments he made to an adult film star, preventing her from going public about what she claims was an extramarital affair with Trump—an event she described in great, grisly detail for the jury a couple of weeks ago. (Trump has pleaded not guilty and denied the affair.)
It’s also worth noting that Trump’s trial has featured a cast of characters whom general election voters may have otherwise forgotten about. There’s the fixer in question, Michael Cohen; the aforementioned porn star, Stormy Daniels; Playboy playmate Karen McDougal; and tabloid kingpin David Pecker. Trump’s alleged crime was intentionally mislabeling payments to Daniels to buy her silence after the Access Hollywood tape came out, in which Trump could be heard making lewd remarks about women, potentially amounting to a campaign contribution in kind. Trump has defended those payments by claiming he was trying to protect his third wife, Melania Trump. But there is little evidence to support this assertion. As Cohen testified last week, when the tape surfaced in 2016, Trump apparently told him: “This is a disaster, total disaster. Women are going to hate me. Women will hate me. Guys, they think it’s cool, but this is going to be a disaster for the campaign.” It’s also not the best look for Trump’s defense that his wife, Melania, has yet to attend the trial. (Meanwhile, the only family member who has paid their respects is the often-overlooked Eric Trump.)
When you consider what a pulpy public humiliation all of this has been for Trump, it makes sense why Democrats picked Joe Biden in 2020: He read like a boring, scandal-free white guy, and thus had the best chance of winning. Of course, that hasn’t stopped House Republicans from desperately attempting to paint the president as a criminal mastermind just as corrupt as Trump. But, well, they haven’t really succeeded. GOP lawmakers tried to oust Biden with a very evidence-deficient, vibes-based impeachment inquiry, which ended with a whimper when their star witness was thrown in jail. Now Republicans mostly just attack Biden for being old—which is true, though he’s only three years Trump’s senior.
At the moment, we are heading into the home stretch of Trump’s criminal trial, which will involve further cross-examination of Cohen, closing arguments, and highly-unlikely-but-still-possible testimony from Trump himself. Whatever the verdict—which could come as early as next week—there will be a chorus of conjecture to follow. If Trump is found not guilty, pundits will surely argue that it’ll legitimize his claims about the trial being a political “witch hunt.” But a not guilty verdict doesn’t erase the tabloid tableau in that Manhattan courtroom—where, again, an adult film star testified that she had sex with Trump shortly after his third wife gave birth to his fifth child.
None of us know how this will inform the events of November. But if you think the trial will have absolutely zero downstream effects on the election, you just might be jumping to conclusions.
