THE POPULAR MAVERICK RAISING EYEBROWS
Given Trump’s transactional nature, he might even understand Shigeru Ishiba’s talk of re-balancing Tokyo’s relationship with the US. But others in Washington might not be so sure, given Tokyo’s increasing importance in US plans to contain China.
Ishiba is well-known in defence circles. But his talk of reviewing the Status of Forces Agreement to place Japan on equal terms with its security guarantor, as well as building an “Asian NATO”, are already raising eyebrows in Washington.
Some circumspect conversation around the dangers to Japan of a Chinese invasion to Taiwan, as well as comments that the country isn’t simply limited to allying with the US or moving closer to China, could rankle those who have welcomed Tokyo’s recent positioning as the US’s most crucial Asian ally.
Ishiba’s economic arguments also raise questions on his best days. I struggle to reconcile some of his reasoning – such as making the end of deflation his top priority, while simultaneously calling for Bank of Japan rate hikes to bring prices down.
IT’S THE ECONOMY
The lack of an economic vision isn’t just limited to Ishiba, however. While each of the three represents a different strand of traditional LDP economic thinking – neoliberal Koizumi, who sees growth prompted by sweeping reforms; spend-heavy Takaichi, who favours a return to easing; and fiscally cautious Ishiba – their plans lack substance.
And for all the talk of issues such as allowing married couples to keep separate surnames that dominate the hustings, the next prime minister will likely survive or fall on the economy. Change can be good. But be careful what you wish for.
