The ceasefire initiatives with Lebanon are unrealistic, and optimism surrounding an agreement with Israel is artificial, author and political researcher Bechara Khairallah claimed in an interview with Saudi news channel Al-Hadath on Sunday.
According to Khairallah, “All this optimism is artificial. It’s an attempt to create a sense of optimism and make people believe that an agreement is close, particularly before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.”
Khairallah stated that no settlement would occur before Trump’s inauguration on January 20 and that [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu would not grant outgoing President Joe Biden any diplomatic victory before the end of his term.
“All of Hochstein’s moves hint at something, but they have no connection to reality,” Khairallah said.
Regarding Lebanon, Khairallah claimed that one of the main obstacles to an agreement is Hezbollah, which maintains independent military power and political control within the country. “In Lebanon, any stable solution requires the disarmament of Hezbollah—something Iran will never agree to.”
As a result, Khairallah asserted, an agreement in Lebanon is unattainable as long as Hezbollah retains its weapons.
“I am quoting information, assessments, and analyses that are all aligned. None of the proposed settlements, particularly the one suggested by Israel, are implementable,” Khairallah said.
Khairallah also highlighted Iran’s fear of a ceasefire, which could lead to an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities “the day after the ceasefire.”
Khairallah explained, “The Iranians don’t want to see a ceasefire that ends the war because they know it will pave the way for Israeli progress toward those strategic objectives. I am certain that the Iranians are fearful of a ceasefire in Lebanon today.”
In conclusion, Khairallah noted that even if talks toward a settlement occur, they will not materialize anytime soon. “The agreement hoped for in Lebanon is still very far away.”
