1. Brand Modi Vs Rahul Gandhi Battle Continues
If the exit polls prove accurate, the brand Modi is likely to take another hit, with the BJP facing its second setback within six months, following the underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi’s political appeal appears to be gaining momentum, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment.
The exit polls suggest a broader shift in political narratives. While the BJP remains a dominant force and Modi is still viewed as the most popular leader, it appears that relying solely on the “Modi brand” is no longer enough for BJP to secure election victories. Local factors are becoming more important, and the party can no longer depend entirely on Modi’s name. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has successfully reinvented himself from a figure of entitlement to the voice of the poor and marginalized. His efforts to shed the “Pappu” label are bearing fruit, with “Brand Rahul” emerging as a more credible alternative. This shift suggests that Gandhi is increasingly seen as a viable opponent to Modi, with his political standing growing in recent contests.
2. Congress Making a Comeback in Jatland Haryana
Several exit polls have predicted a strong performance for the Congress in Haryana. According to a majority of pollsters, the Congress is projected to win 44-54 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to secure between 15 and 29 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is predicted to perform better than the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), with some exit polls suggesting that other smaller parties could win up to 10 seats.
3. Edge for NC-Congress in Kashmir, BJP in Jammu
Several exit polls predict a strong performance for the Congress in Haryana. Most pollsters project the Congress to win between 44 and 54 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure between 15 and 29 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is predicted to outperform the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), with some exit polls suggesting smaller parties could win up to 10 seats.
4. Contrasting Poll Battles in Jammu AND Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir remains a state of divided voting patterns. The BJP is predicted to perform well in Jammu, while the NC, Congress, and others are expected to dominate the Kashmir Valley. This regional contrast makes it difficult for any single party to secure a majority across the entire state.
5. Reputation of Exit Polls: A Cautionary Tale
While exit polls provide insight into potential outcomes, they should be taken with a pinch of salt, as they often prove unreliable. Historically, exit polls have a notorious track record of inaccuracy. For example, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, several exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, forecasting over 400 seats, but the NDA secured only 293 seats. Similarly, in the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, exit polls favored the Congress, yet the BJP regained control with over 50 seats. Discrepancies were also seen in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, where predictions pointed to a hung assembly, but the BJP ended up winning 325 seats. These examples serve as reminders to approach exit polls with caution, as actual results can differ significantly from predictions.
